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Antalyaspor 1–1 Rizespor

← Süper Lig 2016 · Mon, Oct 17, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: Bulent Yildirim, Turkey

The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market

“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = our simulation. A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.

Who wins? (90 minutes)

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Antalyaspor win50%1.94
Draw28%3.53
Rizespor win22%4.39

across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Timeline

30'🟨Ümit Kurt · Rizespor
31'🟨Davide Petrucci · Rizespor
40'🟨Charles · Antalyaspor
53'🟨Godfrey Oboabona · Rizespor
65'🟨Ramon Motta · Antalyaspor
72'⚽Deniz Kadah · Antalyaspor
74'🟨Zeki Yildirim · Antalyaspor
90'⚽Ahmet İlhan Özek · Rizespor

from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks

The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in

Match stats

0Half-time score0

Pre-match form

What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.

MetricAntalyasporRizespor
accuracy ratio (last 10)0.350.19
accuracy ratio (last 3)0.400.19
accuracy ratio (last 5)0.330.18
box share (last 5)0.510.47
cards avg (last 5)0.000.00
coach days16.00686.00
congestion 21d1.001.00
elo1455.321462.94
elo momentum (last 5)
Everything else we hold on this match · 1 more recorded fact — tap to expand
venueAntalya Stadyumu
-44.51
-35.35
eye test v1-0.44-1.04
eye trend v10.070.08
first sub minute (last 10)52.3352.00
form points (last 5)1.003.00
goal diff avg (last 5)-1.20-1.20
goals against avg (last 5)2.201.60
goals for avg (last 5)1.000.40
keeper form v10.450.69
league points2.004.00
league rank18.0017.00
matches since blank1.000.00
matches since clean sheet1.003.00
matches since win6.003.00
pass acc avg (last 5)78.2076.00
possession avg (last 5)50.0045.00
rest days15.1316.00
scorer concentration0.40—
season ppg0.330.67
skill v10.13-0.49
sot against avg (last 5)3.605.00
sot for avg (last 10)3.832.50
sot for avg (last 3)3.672.33
sot for avg (last 5)3.202.20
state index-1.04-0.78
sterile dominance v10.19-0.36
threat rate (last 10)0.230.25
threat rate (last 3)0.210.21
threat rate (last 5)0.210.23