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Fenerbahce 1–1 Alanyaspor

← Süper Lig 2016 · Sun, Oct 16, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: Alper Ulusoy, Turkey

The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market

“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = our simulation. A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.

Who wins? (90 minutes)

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Fenerbahce win75%1.31
Draw16%5.94
Alanyaspor win9%10.99

across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Timeline

26'🟨Fabrice N'Sakala · Alanyaspor
32'🟨Volkan Demirel · Fenerbahce
33'🟨Abdoulaye Ba · Alanyaspor
36'🟨Ismail Aissati · Alanyaspor
36'⚽Mehmet Topal · Fenerbahce
41'🟨Hasan Ali Kaldırım · Fenerbahce
41'🟨Mehmet Topal · Fenerbahce
41'🟨Daniel Candeias · Alanyaspor
51'🟨Isaac Sackey · Alanyaspor
59'⚽Daniel Candeias · Alanyaspor
75'🟨Volkan Şen · Fenerbahce
83'🟨Miroslav Stoch · Fenerbahce
86'🟨Isaac Sackey · Alanyaspor
86'🟥Isaac Sackey · Alanyaspor
90'🟨Deniz Vural · Alanyaspor

from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks

The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in

Match stats

1Half-time score0

Pre-match form

What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.

MetricFenerbahceAlanyaspor
accuracy ratio (last 10)0.350.37
accuracy ratio (last 3)0.240.43
accuracy ratio (last 5)0.290.35
box share (last 5)0.560.54
cards avg (last 5)0.000.00
coach days76.00685.00
congestion 21d3.002.00
corners volatility (last 10)2.55—
elo1553.55
Everything else we hold on this match · 1 more recorded fact — tap to expand
venueŞükrü Saracoğlu Stadı
1479.56
elo momentum (last 5)44.91-5.93
eye test v1-0.05-0.33
eye trend v1-0.220.21
first sub minute (last 10)58.0054.00
form points (last 5)11.007.00
goal diff avg (last 5)1.20-0.40
goals against avg (last 5)0.801.80
goals for avg (last 5)2.001.40
goals volatility (last 10)1.55—
keeper form v10.640.54
league points8.007.00
league rank10.0011.00
matches since blank5.000.00
matches since clean sheet1.002.00
matches since win1.002.00
pass acc avg (last 5)76.4075.80
possession avg (last 5)51.8045.60
rest days13.8814.00
scorer concentration0.180.43
season ppg1.331.17
skill v10.06-0.47
sot against avg (last 5)2.804.60
sot for avg (last 10)4.704.17
sot for avg (last 3)3.335.00
sot for avg (last 5)4.203.80
state index0.69-0.32
sterile dominance v1-0.17-0.36
threat rate (last 10)0.240.25
threat rate (last 3)0.270.25
threat rate (last 5)0.270.23
venue ppg (last 5)2.00—