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Bursaspor 0–0 Osmanlispor

← Süper Lig 2016 · Sun, Oct 16, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: Firat Aydinus, Turkey

The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market

“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = our simulation. A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.

Who wins? (90 minutes)

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Osmanlispor win41%2.38
Bursaspor win31%3.18
Draw28%3.45

across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Timeline

30'🟨Ricardo Faty · Bursaspor
32'🟨Serdar Kurtuluş · Bursaspor
44'🟨Ismail Konuk · Bursaspor
51'🟨Musa Çağıran · Osmanlispor
74'🟨Aminu Umar · Osmanlispor
83'🟨Muhammed Bayir · Osmanlispor
86'🟨Cristóbal Jorquera · Bursaspor

from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks

The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in

Match stats

0Half-time score0

Pre-match form

What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.

MetricBursasporOsmanlispor
accuracy ratio (last 10)0.420.37
accuracy ratio (last 3)0.450.24
accuracy ratio (last 5)0.410.29
box share (last 5)0.630.49
cards avg (last 5)0.000.00
coach days320.003090.00
congestion 21d2.002.00
corners volatility (last 10)—2.42
elo1514.18
Everything else we hold on this match · 1 more recorded fact — tap to expand
venueBursa Büyükşehir Stadyumu
1579.05
elo momentum (last 5)2.471.26
eye test v1-0.75-0.67
eye trend v10.15-0.43
first sub minute (last 10)49.5066.20
form points (last 5)9.008.00
goal diff avg (last 5)0.200.40
goals against avg (last 5)1.201.00
goals for avg (last 5)1.401.40
goals volatility (last 10)—0.70
keeper form v10.730.79
league points12.0010.00
league rank4.008.00
matches since blank4.008.00
matches since clean sheet1.003.00
matches since win1.003.00
pass acc avg (last 5)68.4074.60
possession avg (last 5)41.4050.40
rest days14.7713.77
scorer concentration0.440.33
season ppg2.001.67
skill v1-1.61-0.25
sot against avg (last 5)5.003.20
sot for avg (last 10)3.504.22
sot for avg (last 3)3.672.33
sot for avg (last 5)3.203.00
state index0.030.20
sterile dominance v1-0.770.07
threat rate (last 10)0.200.24
threat rate (last 3)0.210.21
threat rate (last 5)0.200.20
venue ppg (last 5)—1.60