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Kayserispor 0–1 Besiktas

← Süper Lig 2016 · Sat, Oct 15, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: Huseyin Gocek, Turkey

The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market

“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = our simulation. A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.

Who wins? (90 minutes)

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Besiktas win54%1.81
Draw26%3.81
Kayserispor win20%4.77

across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Timeline

15'🟨Atiba Hutchinson · Besiktas
45'🟨Larrys Mabiala · Kayserispor
67'⚽Ömer Şişmanoğlu · Besiktas
71'🟨Deniz Türüç · Kayserispor
80'🟨Jean-Armel Kana-Biyik · Kayserispor
90'🟨Larrys Mabiala · Kayserispor
90'🟥Larrys Mabiala · Kayserispor

from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks

The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in

Match stats

0Half-time score0

Pre-match form

What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.

MetricKayserisporBesiktas
accuracy ratio (last 10)0.400.41
accuracy ratio (last 3)0.340.35
accuracy ratio (last 5)0.410.39
box share (last 5)0.640.50
cards avg (last 5)0.000.00
coach days472.00502.00
congestion 21d2.002.00
elo1467.791551.75
elo momentum (last 5)
Everything else we hold on this match · 1 more recorded fact — tap to expand
venueKadir Has Stadium
-14.65
37.24
eye test v1-0.510.77
eye trend v1-0.26-0.07
first sub minute (last 10)47.5050.00
form points (last 5)5.0011.00
goal diff avg (last 5)-0.601.00
goals against avg (last 5)2.201.00
goals for avg (last 5)1.602.00
keeper form v10.620.75
league points5.0014.00
league rank15.002.00
matches since blank5.006.00
matches since clean sheet6.000.00
matches since win1.000.00
pass acc avg (last 5)71.6083.80
possession avg (last 5)42.6062.20
rest days14.0413.92
scorer concentration0.630.36
season ppg0.832.33
skill v1-1.171.67
sot against avg (last 5)5.403.60
sot for avg (last 10)3.505.50
sot for avg (last 3)2.335.33
sot for avg (last 5)3.605.60
state index-0.430.66
sterile dominance v1-0.630.98
threat rate (last 10)0.200.23
threat rate (last 3)0.160.26
threat rate (last 5)0.220.24