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Osmanlispor 1–1 Fenerbahce

← Süper Lig 2016 · Sun, Oct 2, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: Mete Kalkavan, Turkey

The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market

“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = our simulation. A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.

Who wins? (90 minutes)

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Fenerbahce win44%2.22
Draw29%3.40
Osmanlispor win27%3.57

across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Timeline

9'⚽ (pen)Badou Ndiaye · Osmanlispor
50'🟨Zydrunas Karcemarskas · Osmanlispor
55'⚽Robin van Persie · Fenerbahce
61'🟨Vaclav Prochazka · Osmanlispor
65'🟨Mehmet Topal · Fenerbahce
84'🟨Badou Ndiaye · Osmanlispor

from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks

The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in

Match stats

1Half-time score0

Pre-match form

What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.

MetricOsmanlisporFenerbahce
accuracy ratio (last 10)0.390.37
accuracy ratio (last 3)0.290.34
accuracy ratio (last 5)0.350.30
blown lead rate (last 20)0.100.00
box share (last 5)0.470.54
cards avg (last 5)0.000.00
coach days3076.0062.00
comeback rate (last 20)0.000.00
congestion 21d
Everything else we hold on this match · 1 more recorded fact — tap to expand
venueOsmanlı Stadyumu
6.00
6.00
corner diff avg (last 5)-0.401.60
corners against avg (last 5)5.203.60
corners for avg (last 5)4.805.20
elo1668.601788.82
elo momentum (last 5)-4.2823.44
eye test v1-0.180.12
eye trend v1-0.380.17
first sub minute (last 10)64.4059.33
form points (last 5)8.0013.00
goal diff avg (last 5)0.402.00
goals against avg (last 5)1.200.80
goals for avg (last 5)1.602.80
goals volatility (last 10)0.711.91
h2 goals (last 10)1.001.10
ht lead rate (last 20)0.350.45
keeper form v10.810.65
league points10.0010.00
league rank8.009.00
matches since blank8.005.00
matches since clean sheet3.000.00
matches since win3.000.00
pass acc avg (last 5)73.6078.40
possession avg (last 5)49.2055.80
rest days2.882.79
scorer concentration0.330.20
season ppg1.671.43
skill v1-0.450.59
sot against avg (last 5)3.403.20
sot for avg (last 10)4.505.00
sot for avg (last 3)3.005.33
sot for avg (last 5)4.204.40
squad age27.6427.41
state index0.421.32
sterile dominance v1-0.310.22
threat rate (last 10)0.240.24
threat rate (last 3)0.210.31
threat rate (last 5)0.240.26
venue ppg (last 5)2.602.00