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Konyaspor 1–0 Adana Demirspor

← Süper Lig 2016 · Sun, Oct 2, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: Baris Simsek, Turkey

The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market

“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = our simulation. A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.

Who wins? (90 minutes)

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Konyaspor win57%1.72
Draw25%3.85
Adana Demirspor win18%5.42

across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Timeline

-3'🟨Halil İbrahim Sönmez · Konyaspor
-3'🟨Magaye Gueye · Adana Demirspor
30'🟨Selim Ay · Konyaspor
51'🟨Cem Özdemir · Adana Demirspor
60'🟨Roni · Adana Demirspor
77'⚽Jagoš Vuković · Konyaspor
79'🟨Ömer Ali Şahiner · Konyaspor

from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks

The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in

Match stats

0Half-time score0

Pre-match form

What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.

MetricKonyasporAdana Demirspor
accuracy ratio (last 10)0.340.35
accuracy ratio (last 3)0.310.34
accuracy ratio (last 5)0.300.35
blown lead rate (last 20)0.050.10
box share (last 5)0.500.49
cards avg (last 5)0.000.00
coach days732.001.00
comeback rate (last 20)0.000.00
congestion 21d
Everything else we hold on this match · 1 more recorded fact — tap to expand
venueKonya Büyükşehir Belediye Stadyumu
5.00
2.00
corner diff avg (last 5)-3.60-1.80
corners against avg (last 5)6.605.20
corners for avg (last 5)3.003.40
elo1657.501391.24
elo momentum (last 5)-30.2422.77
eye test v1-1.18-0.07
eye trend v1-0.050.04
first sub minute (last 10)57.5760.00
form points (last 5)4.006.00
goal diff avg (last 5)-0.400.00
goals against avg (last 5)1.201.00
goals for avg (last 5)0.801.00
goals volatility (last 10)1.031.26
h2 goals (last 10)0.900.90
ht lead rate (last 20)0.350.20
keeper form v10.710.69
league points6.006.00
league rank15.0014.00
matches since blank0.001.00
matches since clean sheet9.002.00
matches since win4.000.00
pass acc avg (last 5)71.4075.80
possession avg (last 5)43.6047.80
rest days2.886.00
scorer concentration0.330.40
season ppg1.201.00
skill v1-1.11-0.30
sot against avg (last 5)4.603.80
sot for avg (last 10)2.864.40
sot for avg (last 3)2.334.67
sot for avg (last 5)2.204.40
squad age26.9724.48
state index-0.13-0.22
sterile dominance v1-0.34-0.32
threat rate (last 10)0.190.25
threat rate (last 3)0.160.25
threat rate (last 5)0.180.25
venue ppg (last 5)1.601.00