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Gaziantep 3–2 Bursaspor

← Süper Lig 2016 · Sat, Oct 1, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: Tolga Ozkalfa, Turkey

The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market

“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = our simulation. A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.

Who wins? (90 minutes)

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Gaziantep win36%2.68
Bursaspor win35%2.82
Draw29%3.35

across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Timeline

8'🟨Davy Claude Angan · Gaziantep
31'⚽Nabil Ghilas · Gaziantep
40'⚽Pablo Batalla · Bursaspor
45'🟥Erdem Özgenç · Bursaspor
50'🟨Daniel Kolář · Gaziantep
54'🟨Bart van Hintum · Gaziantep
60'⚽Evans Kangwa · Gaziantep
79'⚽Evans Kangwa · Gaziantep
90'⚽Yonathan Del Valle · Bursaspor

from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks

The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in

Match stats

1Half-time score1

Pre-match form

What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.

MetricGaziantepBursaspor
accuracy ratio (last 10)0.210.38
accuracy ratio (last 3)0.200.44
accuracy ratio (last 5)0.210.38
box share (last 5)0.330.61
cards avg (last 5)0.000.00
coach days92.00305.00
congestion 21d3.003.00
elo1479.761523.72
elo momentum (last 5)
Everything else we hold on this match · 1 more recorded fact — tap to expand
venueGaziantep Kamil Ocak Stadium
-20.24
23.72
eye test v1-0.93-0.53
eye trend v10.330.29
first sub minute (last 10)61.6054.60
form points (last 5)4.0012.00
goal diff avg (last 5)-0.600.60
goals against avg (last 5)1.000.80
goals for avg (last 5)0.401.40
keeper form v10.720.78
league points4.0012.00
league rank17.003.00
matches since blank1.003.00
matches since clean sheet2.000.00
matches since win3.000.00
pass acc avg (last 5)69.2071.00
possession avg (last 5)46.4043.60
rest days6.006.13
scorer concentration—0.43
season ppg0.802.40
skill v1-1.15-1.15
sot against avg (last 5)3.604.00
sot for avg (last 10)2.803.60
sot for avg (last 3)3.334.00
sot for avg (last 5)2.803.60
state index-0.590.32
sterile dominance v1-0.70-0.65
threat rate (last 10)0.240.22
threat rate (last 3)0.280.25
threat rate (last 5)0.240.22