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Rizespor 0–1 Besiktas

← Süper Lig 2016 · Sat, Oct 1, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: Cuneyt Cakir, Turkey

The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market

“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = our simulation. A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.

Who wins? (90 minutes)

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Besiktas win55%1.79
Draw27%3.58
Rizespor win18%5.38

across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Timeline

-3'🟨Tolgay Arslan · Besiktas
12'🟨Ahmet İlhan Özek · Rizespor
49'🟨Marcelo · Besiktas
84'🟨Ricardo Quaresma · Besiktas
90'🟨Adriano · Besiktas
90'⚽Adriano · Besiktas

from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks

The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in

Match stats

0Half-time score0

Pre-match form

What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.

MetricRizesporBesiktas
accuracy ratio (last 10)0.230.45
accuracy ratio (last 3)0.240.44
accuracy ratio (last 5)0.230.45
blown lead rate (last 20)0.000.00
box share (last 5)0.590.51
cards avg (last 5)0.000.00
coach days670.00488.00
comeback rate (last 20)0.000.00
congestion 21d
Everything else we hold on this match · 1 more recorded fact — tap to expand
venueÇaykur Didi Stadyumu
4.00
4.00
corner diff avg (last 5)-1.800.80
corners against avg (last 5)6.604.60
corners for avg (last 5)4.805.40
elo1479.951794.40
elo momentum (last 5)-31.55-2.38
eye test v1-0.470.76
eye trend v10.140.10
first sub minute (last 10)50.0050.80
form points (last 5)3.009.00
goal diff avg (last 5)-1.400.80
goals against avg (last 5)1.801.40
goals for avg (last 5)0.402.20
goals volatility (last 10)0.701.07
h2 goals (last 10)0.401.10
h2h win rate (last 5)0.200.80
ht lead rate (last 20)0.150.40
keeper form v10.670.75
league points4.0012.00
league rank18.004.00
matches since blank1.0018.00
matches since clean sheet3.002.00
matches since win3.002.00
pass acc avg (last 5)78.2083.20
possession avg (last 5)48.6060.40
rest days6.006.88
scorer concentration—0.40
season ppg0.672.00
skill v10.031.48
sot against avg (last 5)4.804.80
sot for avg (last 10)3.005.80
sot for avg (last 3)3.006.67
sot for avg (last 5)3.005.80
squad age25.0928.46
state index-0.690.86
sterile dominance v1-0.291.02
threat rate (last 10)0.270.22
threat rate (last 3)0.260.26
threat rate (last 5)0.270.22
venue ppg (last 5)2.001.60