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Fenerbahce 2–1 Gaziantep

← Süper Lig 2016 · Sun, Sep 25, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: Firat Aydinus, Turkey

The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market

“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = our simulation. A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.

Who wins? (90 minutes)

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Fenerbahce win80%1.22
Draw14%7.10
Gaziantep win6%15.00

across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Timeline

21'🟨František Rajtoral · Gaziantep
22'⚽Emmanuel Emenike · Fenerbahce
54'🟨Davy Claude Angan · Gaziantep
65'🟨Elyasa Süme · Gaziantep
80'⚽Nabil Ghilas · Gaziantep
85'🟨Muhammed Ildiz · Gaziantep
86'⚽Souza · Fenerbahce
87'🟨Bart van Hintum · Gaziantep
89'🟨Emre Nefiz · Gaziantep
90'🟨Hasan Ali Kaldırım · Fenerbahce

from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks

The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in

Match stats

1Half-time score0

Pre-match form

What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.

MetricFenerbahceGaziantep
accuracy ratio (last 10)0.40—
accuracy ratio (last 3)0.320.16
accuracy ratio (last 5)0.380.19
blown lead rate (last 20)0.000.10
box share (last 5)0.540.36
cards avg (last 5)0.000.00
coach days55.0086.00
comeback rate (last 20)0.000.00
congestion 21d
Everything else we hold on this match · 1 more recorded fact — tap to expand
venueŞükrü Saracoğlu Stadı
4.00
3.00
corner diff avg (last 5)0.00—
corners against avg (last 5)4.20—
corners for avg (last 5)4.20—
elo1779.081476.77
elo momentum (last 5)-10.84-15.83
eye test v10.45-0.99
eye trend v1-0.18—
first sub minute (last 10)55.0065.50
form points (last 5)8.004.00
goal diff avg (last 5)1.40-0.60
goals against avg (last 5)1.400.80
goals for avg (last 5)2.800.20
goals volatility (last 10)1.910.71
h2 goals (last 10)1.200.30
h2h win rate (last 5)0.900.10
ht lead rate (last 20)0.450.20
keeper form v10.590.77
league points7.004.00
league rank10.0016.00
matches since blank3.000.00
matches since clean sheet5.002.00
matches since win0.003.00
pass acc avg (last 5)83.4068.00
possession avg (last 5)59.2046.00
rest days5.886.90
scorer concentration0.25—
season ppg1.170.80
skill v11.40-1.33
sot against avg (last 5)3.003.25
sot for avg (last 10)5.29—
sot for avg (last 3)4.673.00
sot for avg (last 5)5.002.75
squad age27.1528.22
state index1.02-0.69
sterile dominance v10.89-0.85
threat rate (last 10)0.22—
threat rate (last 3)0.240.28
threat rate (last 5)0.230.25
venue ppg (last 5)2.000.20