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Akhisarspor 0–2 Besiktas

← Süper Lig 2016 · Sun, Sep 18, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: Bulent Yildirim, Turkey

The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market

“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = our simulation. A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.

Who wins? (90 minutes)

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Besiktas win58%1.68
Draw25%3.97
Akhisarspor win17%5.65

across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Timeline

8'⚽Anderson Talisca · Besiktas
45'🟨Ömer Bayram · Akhisarspor
45'⚽ (og)Hugo Rodallega · Besiktas
52'🟨Marcelo · Besiktas
58'🟨Gökhan Gönül · Besiktas
60'🟨Serdar Kesimal · Akhisarspor
85'🟨Hugo Rodallega · Akhisarspor
90'🟨Duško Tošić · Besiktas

from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks

The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in

Match stats

0Half-time score2

Pre-match form

What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.

MetricAkhisarsporBesiktas
accuracy ratio (last 3)0.490.46
accuracy ratio (last 5)0.490.46
blown lead rate (last 20)0.150.00
box share (last 5)0.470.50
cards avg (last 5)0.000.00
coach days12.00475.00
comeback rate (last 20)0.000.00
congestion 21d1.001.00
elo
Everything else we hold on this match · 1 more recorded fact — tap to expand
venueManisa 19 Mayis
1536.65
1798.60
elo momentum (last 5)-34.180.10
eye test v1-0.300.72
first sub minute (last 10)46.0049.67
form points (last 5)3.0010.00
goal diff avg (last 5)-0.801.20
goals against avg (last 5)1.601.40
goals for avg (last 5)0.802.60
goals volatility (last 10)0.921.07
h2 goals (last 10)0.801.30
h2h win rate (last 5)0.400.60
ht lead rate (last 20)0.150.40
keeper form v10.71—
league points3.007.00
league rank17.007.00
matches since blank0.0015.00
matches since clean sheet3.005.00
matches since win3.000.00
pass acc avg (last 5)73.6783.33
possession avg (last 5)40.0061.67
rest days7.008.00
scorer concentration—0.43
season ppg0.752.33
skill v1-1.191.65
sot against avg (last 5)4.674.67
sot for avg (last 3)4.005.67
sot for avg (last 5)4.005.67
squad age29.2527.48
state index-0.561.20
sterile dominance v1-0.751.24
threat rate (last 3)0.220.20
threat rate (last 5)0.220.20
venue ppg (last 5)0.401.60