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Osmanlispor 1–0 Adana Demirspor

← Süper Lig 2016 · Sun, Sep 18, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: Abdulkadir Bitigen, Turkey

The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market

“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = our simulation. A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.

Who wins? (90 minutes)

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Osmanlispor win68%1.43
Draw19%5.07
Adana Demirspor win13%7.77

across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Timeline

28'🟨Avdija Vršajević · Osmanlispor
38'🟨Tevfik Altındağ · Adana Demirspor
51'⚽Badou Ndiaye · Osmanlispor
53'🟨Aminu Umar · Osmanlispor
58'🟨Mehmet Güven · Osmanlispor
62'🟨Ousmane Viera · Adana Demirspor
71'🟨Vladimir Koman · Adana Demirspor
81'🟨Cheick Diabaté · Osmanlispor
83'🟨Bekir Yilmaz · Adana Demirspor

from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks

The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in

Match stats

0Half-time score0

Pre-match form

What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.

MetricOsmanlisporAdana Demirspor
accuracy ratio (last 10)0.45—
accuracy ratio (last 3)0.470.39
accuracy ratio (last 5)0.450.39
box share (last 5)0.430.47
cards avg (last 5)0.00—
coach days3062.0048.00
congestion 21d3.001.00
elo1587.141488.45
elo momentum (last 5)
Everything else we hold on this match · 1 more recorded fact — tap to expand
venueOsmanlı Stadyumu
32.88
—
eye test v10.330.14
eye trend v10.09—
first sub minute (last 10)59.6059.00
form points (last 5)11.00—
goal diff avg (last 5)1.20—
goals against avg (last 5)0.40—
goals for avg (last 5)1.60—
goals volatility (last 10)1.29—
keeper form v10.90—
league points5.002.00
league rank9.0014.00
matches since blank4.000.00
matches since clean sheet0.000.00
matches since win0.003.00
pass acc avg (last 5)75.0078.67
possession avg (last 5)48.0050.67
rest days2.797.88
season ppg1.670.67
skill v1-0.410.24
sot against avg (last 5)5.402.67
sot for avg (last 10)5.40—
sot for avg (last 3)6.004.67
sot for avg (last 5)5.404.67
state index0.84-0.27
sterile dominance v1-0.430.05
threat rate (last 10)0.26—
threat rate (last 3)0.290.24
threat rate (last 5)0.260.24
venue ppg (last 5)2.60—