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Antalyaspor 1–3 Konyaspor

← Süper Lig 2016 · Sun, Sep 11, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: Huseyin Gocek, Turkey

The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market

“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = our simulation. A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.

Who wins? (90 minutes)

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Konyaspor win35%2.83
Antalyaspor win34%2.88
Draw32%3.09

across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Timeline

35'🟨Charles · Antalyaspor
39'🟨Deni Milošević · Konyaspor
49'⚽Ömer Ali Şahiner · Konyaspor
55'⚽Ömer Ali Şahiner · Konyaspor
64'🟨Danilo · Antalyaspor
65'⚽Dimitar Rangelov · Konyaspor
87'🟨Yekta Kurtuluş · Antalyaspor
87'🟨Diego Angelo · Antalyaspor
87'🟨Ömer Ali Şahiner · Konyaspor
87'🟨Ali Çamdalı · Konyaspor
90'⚽Samuel Eto'o · Antalyaspor

from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks

The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in

Match stats

0Half-time score0

Pre-match form

What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.

MetricAntalyasporKonyaspor
accuracy ratio (last 3)0.290.46
accuracy ratio (last 5)0.290.46
blown lead rate (last 20)0.100.05
box share (last 5)0.470.61
cards avg (last 5)0.000.00
coach days438.00711.00
comeback rate (last 20)0.000.00
congestion 21d2.001.00
elo
Everything else we hold on this match · 1 more recorded fact — tap to expand
venueAntalya Stadyumu
1553.30
1687.74
elo momentum (last 5)2.0016.67
eye test v10.31-0.04
form points (last 5)7.009.00
goal diff avg (last 5)1.000.60
goals against avg (last 5)0.801.00
goals for avg (last 5)1.801.60
goals volatility (last 10)2.270.84
h2 goals (last 10)1.000.80
h2h win rate (last 5)0.400.60
ht lead rate (last 20)0.250.40
matches since blank1.005.00
matches since clean sheet1.004.00
matches since win3.002.00
pass acc avg (last 5)83.0076.50
possession avg (last 5)53.5046.00
rest days16.0016.00
season ppg0.501.00
skill v11.05-0.42
sot against avg (last 5)2.504.00
sot for avg (last 3)4.504.50
sot for avg (last 5)4.504.50
squad age27.9527.66
state index0.360.79
sterile dominance v10.16-0.26
threat rate (last 3)0.290.22
threat rate (last 5)0.290.22
venue ppg (last 5)2.201.60