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Rizespor 1–0 Akhisarspor

← Süper Lig 2016 · Sun, Sep 11, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: Ali Palabiyik, Turkey

The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market

“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = our simulation. A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.

Who wins? (90 minutes)

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Akhisarspor win37%2.60
Draw32%3.09
Rizespor win31%3.15

across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Timeline

11'🟨Orhan Ovacıklı · Rizespor
20'🟨Jakob Jantscher · Rizespor
35'🟨Douglao · Akhisarspor
38'🟨Miguel Lopes · Akhisarspor
39'🟨Marwane Saadane · Rizespor
48'🟨Aykut Çeviker · Akhisarspor
49'⚽Iyayi Believe Atiemwen · Rizespor
76'🟨Aykut Çeviker · Akhisarspor
76'🟥Aykut Çeviker · Akhisarspor

from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks

The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in

Match stats

0Half-time score0

Pre-match form

What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.

MetricRizesporAkhisarspor
accuracy ratio (last 3)0.220.57
accuracy ratio (last 5)0.220.57
blown lead rate (last 20)0.000.15
box share (last 5)0.640.37
cards avg (last 5)0.000.00
coach days650.005.00
comeback rate (last 20)0.050.00
congestion 21d1.003.00
elo
Everything else we hold on this match · 1 more recorded fact — tap to expand
venueÇaykur Didi Stadyumu
1495.11
1546.40
elo momentum (last 5)-24.72-33.20
eye test v1-0.47-0.13
form points (last 5)4.003.00
goal diff avg (last 5)-1.80-0.80
goals against avg (last 5)2.201.80
goals for avg (last 5)0.401.00
goals volatility (last 10)0.700.92
h2 goals (last 10)0.300.90
h2h win rate (last 5)0.700.30
ht lead rate (last 20)0.150.15
keeper form v10.670.75
matches since blank0.003.00
matches since clean sheet3.002.00
matches since win3.002.00
pass acc avg (last 5)78.0073.50
possession avg (last 5)48.5034.50
rest days14.0014.80
season ppg0.501.00
skill v1-0.02-1.76
sot against avg (last 5)6.006.00
sot for avg (last 3)3.004.50
sot for avg (last 5)3.004.50
squad age24.5229.32
state index-0.59-0.37
sterile dominance v1-0.42-1.35
threat rate (last 3)0.280.24
threat rate (last 5)0.280.24
venue ppg (last 5)1.601.60