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Fenerbahce 3–3 Kayserispor

← Süper Lig 2016 · Sun, Aug 28, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: Serkan Cinar, Turkey

The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market

“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = our simulation. A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.

Who wins? (90 minutes)

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Fenerbahce win71%1.37
Draw19%5.06
Kayserispor win9%10.39

across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Timeline

27'⚽Welliton · Kayserispor
30'⚽Simon Kjær · Fenerbahce
36'🟨Levent Gülen · Kayserispor
38'🟥Simon Kjær · Fenerbahce
39'🟨Ozan Tufan · Fenerbahce
39'🟨Deniz Türüç · Kayserispor
41'🟨Préjuce Nakoulma · Kayserispor
44'⚽Ozan Tufan · Fenerbahce
45'⚽Welliton · Kayserispor
74'🟨Miroslav Stoch · Fenerbahce
90'⚽Ufuk Budak · Kayserispor
90'⚽Alper Potuk · Fenerbahce

from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks

The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in

Match stats

2Half-time score2

Pre-match form

What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.

MetricFenerbahceKayserispor
accuracy ratio (last 3)0.44—
accuracy ratio (last 5)0.44—
blown lead rate (last 20)0.000.15
cards avg (last 5)0.000.00
coach days27.00418.00
comeback rate (last 20)0.000.00
congestion 21d4.001.00
elo1789.921484.58
elo momentum (last 5)
Everything else we hold on this match · 1 more recorded fact — tap to expand
venueŞükrü Saracoğlu Stadı
-23.06
-25.81
eye test v10.66—
first sub minute (last 10)60.00—
form points (last 5)7.002.00
goal diff avg (last 5)0.60-2.40
goals against avg (last 5)0.802.80
goals for avg (last 5)1.400.40
goals volatility (last 10)1.450.84
h2 goals (last 10)0.900.20
h2h win rate (last 5)1.000.00
ht lead rate (last 20)0.500.25
matches since blank1.000.00
matches since clean sheet0.007.00
matches since win0.005.00
possession avg (last 5)59.00—
rest days2.887.00
season ppg0.000.00
sot against avg (last 5)1.67—
sot for avg (last 3)5.67—
sot for avg (last 5)5.67—
squad age28.3626.31
state index0.91-0.94
sterile dominance v10.94—
threat rate (last 3)0.22—
threat rate (last 5)0.22—
venue ppg (last 5)2.601.00