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Racing Club de Lens 3–1 Niort

← Ligue 2 2016 · Fri, May 19, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: Francois Letexier, France

The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market

“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = our simulation. A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.

Who wins? (90 minutes)

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Racing Club de Lens win82%1.18
Draw12%8.01
Niort win5%18.19

across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Timeline

7'⚽Kermit Erasmus · Racing Club de Lens
15'⚽Cristian López · Racing Club de Lens
47'🟨Didier Lamkel Zé · Niort
57'🟨Dušan Cvetinović · Racing Club de Lens
58'⚽ (pen)Ande Dona Ndoh · Niort
90'🟨David Kiki · Niort
90'⚽Cristian López · Racing Club de Lens

from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks

The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in

Match stats

2Half-time score0

Pre-match form

What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.

MetricRacing Club de LensNiort
accuracy ratio (last 10)0.330.31
accuracy ratio (last 3)0.360.24
accuracy ratio (last 5)0.330.30
blown lead rate (last 20)0.050.00
box share (last 5)0.520.61
cards avg (last 5)0.000.00
coach days322.00322.00
comeback rate (last 20)0.050.05
congestion 21d
Everything else we hold on this match · 1 more recorded fact — tap to expand
venueStade Bollaert-Delelis
4.00
3.00
corner diff avg (last 5)2.201.80
corners against avg (last 5)4.004.00
corners for avg (last 5)6.205.80
corners volatility (last 10)2.642.78
elo1574.301441.68
elo momentum (last 5)33.06-46.25
eye test v10.62-0.45
eye trend v10.22-0.13
first sub minute (last 10)60.1064.70
form points (last 5)10.002.00
goal diff avg (last 5)1.80-1.60
goals against avg (last 5)0.402.20
goals for avg (last 5)2.200.60
goals volatility (last 10)2.020.82
h2 goals (last 10)1.300.40
h2h win rate (last 5)0.700.30
ht lead rate (last 20)0.200.10
keeper form v10.69—
league points72.0058.00
league rank5.0010.00
matches since blank4.001.00
matches since clean sheet0.001.00
matches since win0.006.00
pass acc avg (last 5)82.0079.80
possession avg (last 5)61.0052.40
rest days6.817.00
scorer concentration0.260.33
season ppg1.671.35
skill v11.380.56
sot against avg (last 5)3.605.00
sot for avg (last 10)4.903.20
sot for avg (last 3)5.332.67
sot for avg (last 5)5.003.20
squad age26.7126.55
state index0.71-1.18
sterile dominance v10.600.57
threat rate (last 10)0.260.22
threat rate (last 3)0.310.19
threat rate (last 5)0.270.20
venue ppg (last 5)1.401.20