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Clermont 1–0 Valenciennes

← Ligue 2 2016 · Fri, May 19, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: Stephanie Frappart, France

The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market

“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = our simulation. A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.

Who wins? (90 minutes)

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Clermont win48%2.02
Draw27%3.62
Valenciennes win25%3.94

across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Timeline

26'🟨Moussa Niakhaté · Valenciennes
28'🟨Julien Laporte · Clermont
80'🟨Baptiste Aloé · Valenciennes
82'🟥Cyrille Merville · Valenciennes
85'⚽Julien Laporte · Clermont

from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks

The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in

Match stats

0Half-time score0

Pre-match form

What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.

MetricClermontValenciennes
accuracy ratio (last 10)0.340.42
accuracy ratio (last 3)0.360.23
accuracy ratio (last 5)0.360.35
blown lead rate (last 20)0.050.05
box share (last 5)0.620.58
cards avg (last 5)0.000.00
coach days1783.00504.00
comeback rate (last 20)0.000.00
congestion 21d
Everything else we hold on this match · 1 more recorded fact — tap to expand
venueStade Gabriel Montpied
4.00
4.00
corner diff avg (last 5)-1.60-2.20
corners against avg (last 5)7.805.60
corners for avg (last 5)6.203.40
corners volatility (last 10)2.772.08
elo1439.121464.06
elo momentum (last 5)-41.74-12.13
eye test v1-0.09-0.47
eye trend v1-0.21-0.69
first sub minute (last 10)54.6060.40
form points (last 5)2.005.00
goal diff avg (last 5)-1.000.40
goals against avg (last 5)2.400.40
goals for avg (last 5)1.400.80
goals volatility (last 10)1.291.40
h2 goals (last 10)1.100.90
h2h win rate (last 5)0.500.50
ht lead rate (last 20)0.150.15
keeper form v10.57—
league points49.0053.00
league rank15.0013.00
matches since blank3.000.00
matches since clean sheet9.000.00
matches since win9.004.00
pass acc avg (last 5)71.0078.60
possession avg (last 5)47.0052.20
rest days7.007.00
scorer concentration0.270.23
season ppg1.141.23
skill v1-0.720.42
sot against avg (last 5)4.802.60
sot for avg (last 10)4.504.40
sot for avg (last 3)3.672.00
sot for avg (last 5)4.403.20
squad age26.5825.06
state index-1.36-0.44
sterile dominance v1-0.540.63
threat rate (last 10)0.260.20
threat rate (last 3)0.210.16
threat rate (last 5)0.260.18
venue ppg (last 5)0.401.20