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Tours 0–4 Le Havre AC

← Ligue 2 2016 · Fri, May 12, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: Jeremy Stinat, France

The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market

“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = our simulation. A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.

Who wins? (90 minutes)

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Tours win47%2.09
Draw29%3.41
Le Havre AC win25%3.96

across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Timeline

11'⚽ (pen)Zinedine Ferhat · Le Havre AC
16'⚽Alimami Gory · Le Havre AC
27'🟨Roderic Filippi · Tours
54'🟨Roderic Filippi · Tours
54'🟥Roderic Filippi · Tours
55'⚽ (pen)Ebenezer Assifuah · Le Havre AC
64'🟨Florian Miguel · Tours
79'🟨Faïz Selemani · Tours
84'⚽Ludovic Gamboa · Le Havre AC

from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks

The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in

Match stats

0Half-time score2

Pre-match form

What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.

MetricToursLe Havre AC
accuracy ratio (last 10)0.380.38
accuracy ratio (last 3)0.400.33
accuracy ratio (last 5)0.360.37
blown lead rate (last 20)0.150.10
box share (last 5)0.650.58
cards avg (last 5)0.000.00
coach days72.00223.00
comeback rate (last 20)0.000.00
congestion 21d
Everything else we hold on this match · 1 more recorded fact — tap to expand
venueStade de la Vallée-du-Cher
3.00
3.00
corner diff avg (last 5)-1.80-1.80
corners against avg (last 5)5.405.80
corners for avg (last 5)3.604.00
corners volatility (last 10)1.412.08
elo1471.191478.85
elo momentum (last 5)51.30-9.57
eye test v10.170.06
eye trend v1-0.120.00
first sub minute (last 10)59.3060.80
form points (last 5)11.007.00
goal diff avg (last 5)1.40-0.20
goals against avg (last 5)0.800.80
goals for avg (last 5)2.200.60
goals volatility (last 10)0.970.70
h2 goals (last 10)0.800.30
h2h win rate (last 5)0.600.40
ht lead rate (last 20)0.500.25
keeper form v10.770.80
league points45.0052.00
league rank17.0012.00
matches since blank10.000.00
matches since clean sheet1.000.00
matches since win0.002.00
pass acc avg (last 5)75.0081.20
possession avg (last 5)51.0053.20
rest days7.007.00
scorer concentration0.290.26
season ppg1.071.24
skill v1-0.030.76
sot against avg (last 5)3.404.00
sot for avg (last 10)5.604.50
sot for avg (last 3)5.674.33
sot for avg (last 5)4.804.20
squad age24.4625.61
state index0.72-0.41
sterile dominance v1-0.120.55
threat rate (last 10)0.270.23
threat rate (last 3)0.250.27
threat rate (last 5)0.250.22
venue ppg (last 5)2.600.80