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Red Star 1–1 Sochaux

← Ligue 2 2016 Β· Fri, May 12, 02:00 PM UTC Β· ref: Lionel Jaffredo, France

The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market

β€œMarket” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin β€” the world's best guess. β€œModel” = our simulation. A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) β€” it's never about picking the winner.

Who wins? (90 minutes)

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Red Star win58%1.67
Draw24%4.03
Sochaux win17%5.62

across 1 bookmaker Β· probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Timeline

32'⚽Florian Martin · Sochaux
40'🟨Formose Mendy · Red Star
74'🟨Marco Ilaimaharitra · Sochaux
75'⚽Julien Toudic · Red Star

from ESPN event data Β· goals, cards and shootout kicks

The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in

Match stats

0Half-time score1

Pre-match form

What each side looked like walking in β€” computed only from games before this one.

MetricRed StarSochaux
accuracy ratio (last 10)0.370.25
accuracy ratio (last 3)0.380.31
accuracy ratio (last 5)0.320.29
blown lead rate (last 20)0.150.10
box share (last 5)0.540.47
cards avg (last 5)0.000.00
coach days1776.00589.00
comeback rate (last 20)0.000.00
congestion 21d4.005.00
corner diff avg (last 5)3.60-0.60
Everything else we hold on this match Β· 1 more recorded fact β€” tap to expand
venueStade Jean-Bouin
corners against avg (last 5)4.004.80
corners for avg (last 5)7.604.20
corners volatility (last 10)3.142.08
elo1384.191445.47
elo momentum (last 5)19.69-10.82
eye test v10.13-0.61
eye trend v10.050.30
first sub minute (last 10)52.4051.30
form points (last 5)7.006.00
goal diff avg (last 5)0.20-0.20
goals against avg (last 5)1.801.20
goals for avg (last 5)2.001.00
goals volatility (last 10)1.640.57
h2 goals (last 10)0.600.40
ht lead rate (last 20)0.350.30
keeper form v10.680.58
league points38.0055.00
league rank21.0012.00
matches since blank0.007.00
matches since clean sheet0.001.00
matches since win2.001.00
pass acc avg (last 5)74.4077.20
possession avg (last 5)46.2048.80
rest days7.007.00
scorer concentration0.170.42
season ppg0.901.34
skill v1-0.420.04
sot against avg (last 5)3.803.80
sot for avg (last 10)5.102.90
sot for avg (last 3)5.673.33
sot for avg (last 5)4.403.20
squad age26.6123.79
state index-0.38-0.50
sterile dominance v1-0.830.26
threat rate (last 10)0.290.22
threat rate (last 3)0.310.21
threat rate (last 5)0.310.20
venue ppg (last 5)1.201.20