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Amiens 3–0 Laval

← Ligue 2 2016 Β· Fri, May 12, 02:00 PM UTC Β· ref: Hakim Ben el Salem Hadj, France

The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market

β€œMarket” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin β€” the world's best guess. β€œModel” = our simulation. A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) β€” it's never about picking the winner.

Who wins? (90 minutes)

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Amiens win81%1.20
Draw14%7.05
Laval win5%19.43

across 1 bookmaker Β· probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Timeline

10'⚽Bachibou Koita · Amiens
14'⚽Harisson Manzala · Amiens
28'🟨Nicolaos Karagiannis · Laval
36'🟨Charly Charrier · Amiens
39'🟨Hassane Alla · Laval
54'🟨Romain Bayard · Laval
85'⚽Emmanuel Bourgaud · Amiens

from ESPN event data Β· goals, cards and shootout kicks

The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in

Match stats

2Half-time score0

Pre-match form

What each side looked like walking in β€” computed only from games before this one.

MetricAmiensLaval
accuracy ratio (last 10)0.340.28
accuracy ratio (last 3)0.340.16
accuracy ratio (last 5)0.410.28
blown lead rate (last 20)0.050.30
box share (last 5)0.610.54
cards avg (last 5)0.000.00
coach days893.0030.00
comeback rate (last 20)0.050.05
congestion 21d
Everything else we hold on this match Β· 1 more recorded fact β€” tap to expand
venueStade de la Licorne
3.00
3.00
corner diff avg (last 5)1.00-2.40
corners against avg (last 5)3.806.80
corners for avg (last 5)4.804.40
corners volatility (last 10)2.212.69
elo1492.701378.79
elo momentum (last 5)37.24-17.72
eye test v10.62-0.89
eye trend v1-0.15-0.28
first sub minute (last 10)57.7059.70
form points (last 5)12.003.00
goal diff avg (last 5)0.80-0.80
goals against avg (last 5)1.002.20
goals for avg (last 5)1.801.40
goals volatility (last 10)1.071.52
h2 goals (last 10)0.800.60
h2h win rate (last 5)0.500.50
ht lead rate (last 20)0.150.30
keeper form v10.640.64
league points70.0035.00
league rank4.0022.00
matches since blank4.001.00
matches since clean sheet3.007.00
matches since win0.003.00
pass acc avg (last 5)70.6073.20
possession avg (last 5)45.6047.60
rest days7.007.00
scorer concentration0.170.23
season ppg1.670.83
skill v1-0.85-0.45
sot against avg (last 5)3.406.60
sot for avg (last 10)4.603.00
sot for avg (last 3)4.001.67
sot for avg (last 5)5.602.80
squad age27.5826.98
state index0.53-1.00
sterile dominance v1-1.190.10
threat rate (last 10)0.290.22
threat rate (last 3)0.280.19
threat rate (last 5)0.330.19
venue ppg (last 5)2.400.40