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Laval 1–3 Tours

← Ligue 2 2016 · Fri, May 5, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: Said Ennjimi, France

The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market

“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = our simulation. A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.

Who wins? (90 minutes)

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Laval win35%2.76
Tours win35%2.81
Draw30%3.26

across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Timeline

29'⚽Cheick Diarra · Tours
31'⚽Faïz Selemani · Tours
70'⚽Denis Bouanga · Tours
74'🟨Romain Bayard · Laval
83'⚽ (pen)Hassane Alla · Laval

from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks

The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in

Match stats

0Half-time score2

Pre-match form

What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.

MetricLavalTours
accuracy ratio (last 10)0.300.40
accuracy ratio (last 3)0.290.40
accuracy ratio (last 5)0.290.36
blown lead rate (last 20)0.300.15
box share (last 5)0.580.63
cards avg (last 5)0.000.00
coach days23.0065.00
comeback rate (last 20)0.050.00
congestion 21d
Everything else we hold on this match · 1 more recorded fact — tap to expand
venueStade Francis-Le Basser
3.00
3.00
corner diff avg (last 5)-1.40-0.80
corners against avg (last 5)6.605.00
corners for avg (last 5)5.204.20
corners volatility (last 10)2.981.52
elo1393.671456.31
elo momentum (last 5)-2.8749.26
eye test v1-0.790.08
eye trend v1-0.10-0.22
first sub minute (last 10)63.3061.80
form points (last 5)4.0011.00
goal diff avg (last 5)-0.401.40
goals against avg (last 5)1.800.80
goals for avg (last 5)1.402.20
goals volatility (last 10)1.551.23
h2 goals (last 10)0.500.70
h2h win rate (last 5)0.600.40
ht lead rate (last 20)0.300.45
keeper form v10.640.74
league points35.0042.00
league rank22.0018.00
matches since blank0.009.00
matches since clean sheet6.000.00
matches since win2.000.00
pass acc avg (last 5)73.4075.00
possession avg (last 5)50.2050.80
rest days4.007.00
scorer concentration0.230.28
season ppg0.851.02
skill v1-0.25-0.04
sot against avg (last 5)5.804.20
sot for avg (last 10)3.105.20
sot for avg (last 3)2.674.67
sot for avg (last 5)3.004.60
squad age27.7723.56
state index-0.620.46
sterile dominance v10.29-0.06
threat rate (last 10)0.210.25
threat rate (last 3)0.150.23
threat rate (last 5)0.180.24
venue ppg (last 5)1.001.40