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Amiens 2–1 Ajaccio

← Ligue 2 2016 Β· Fri, Apr 28, 02:00 PM UTC Β· ref: Thomas Leonard, France

The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market

β€œMarket” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin β€” the world's best guess. β€œModel” = our simulation. A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) β€” it's never about picking the winner.

Who wins? (90 minutes)

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Amiens win63%1.55
Draw24%4.03
Ajaccio win13%7.56

across 1 bookmaker Β· probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Timeline

43'🟨Aboubakar Kamara · Amiens
52'🟨Joris Sainati · Ajaccio
60'⚽Moussa Maazou · Ajaccio
67'⚽Junior Tallo · Amiens
70'⚽Aboubakar Kamara · Amiens
87'🟨Rayan Frikeche · Ajaccio

from ESPN event data Β· goals, cards and shootout kicks

The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in

Match stats

0Half-time score0

Pre-match form

What each side looked like walking in β€” computed only from games before this one.

MetricAmiensAjaccio
accuracy ratio (last 10)0.370.40
accuracy ratio (last 3)0.510.36
accuracy ratio (last 5)0.450.43
blown lead rate (last 20)0.050.00
box share (last 5)0.600.49
cards avg (last 5)0.000.00
coach days879.00909.00
comeback rate (last 20)0.050.00
congestion 21d
Everything else we hold on this match Β· 1 more recorded fact β€” tap to expand
venueStade de la Licorne
3.00
6.00
corner diff avg (last 5)0.80-1.80
corners against avg (last 5)4.206.20
corners for avg (last 5)5.004.40
corners volatility (last 10)2.413.13
elo1473.771460.87
elo momentum (last 5)17.82-1.50
eye test v10.890.40
eye trend v10.69-0.02
first sub minute (last 10)54.4074.50
form points (last 5)9.007.00
goal diff avg (last 5)0.40-0.40
goals against avg (last 5)0.803.20
goals for avg (last 5)1.202.80
goals volatility (last 10)1.151.20
h2 goals (last 10)1.000.20
h2h win rate (last 5)0.800.20
ht lead rate (last 20)0.200.25
keeper form v10.690.65
league points64.0096.00
league rank6.001.00
matches since blank2.009.00
matches since clean sheet1.005.00
matches since win0.000.00
pass acc avg (last 5)71.6074.40
possession avg (last 5)43.0047.00
rest days6.006.83
scorer concentration0.170.12
season ppg1.601.35
skill v1-0.93-0.36
sot against avg (last 5)3.806.40
sot for avg (last 10)4.604.80
sot for avg (last 3)7.004.67
sot for avg (last 5)6.205.20
squad age28.3027.18
state index0.15-0.36
sterile dominance v1-1.42-0.50
threat rate (last 10)0.270.25
threat rate (last 3)0.350.30
threat rate (last 5)0.340.27
venue ppg (last 5)1.801.60