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Stade Brestois 29 2–3 Amiens

← Ligue 2 2016 · Sat, Apr 22, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: Florent Batta, France

The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market

“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = our simulation. A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.

Who wins? (90 minutes)

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Stade Brestois 29 win46%2.14
Draw30%3.20
Amiens win24%4.07

across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Timeline

20'⚽ (og)Zakaria Diallo · Amiens
21'⚽Alexandre Coeff · Stade Brestois 29
35'🟨Thomas Monconduit · Amiens
37'🟨Julien Faussurier · Stade Brestois 29
49'⚽ (og)Khaled Adenon · Stade Brestois 29
55'🟨Bruno Grougi · Stade Brestois 29
64'🟨Alexandre Coeff · Stade Brestois 29
66'⚽Bakaye Dibassy · Amiens
68'🟨Richard Soumah · Amiens
83'🟨Junior Tallo · Amiens
85'⚽Thomas Monconduit · Amiens

from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks

The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in

Match stats

1Half-time score1

Pre-match form

What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.

MetricStade Brestois 29Amiens
accuracy ratio (last 10)0.410.39
accuracy ratio (last 3)0.410.44
accuracy ratio (last 5)0.410.44
blown lead rate (last 20)0.050.05
box share (last 5)0.590.66
cards avg (last 5)0.000.00
coach days295.00873.00
comeback rate (last 20)0.000.05
congestion 21d
Everything else we hold on this match · 1 more recorded fact — tap to expand
venueStade Francis-Le-Blé
3.00
2.00
corner diff avg (last 5)0.601.40
corners against avg (last 5)4.203.80
corners for avg (last 5)4.805.20
corners volatility (last 10)2.442.32
elo1534.471460.08
elo momentum (last 5)29.2913.74
eye test v10.491.01
eye trend v10.610.64
first sub minute (last 10)56.0055.70
form points (last 5)10.009.00
goal diff avg (last 5)1.000.40
goals against avg (last 5)1.000.60
goals for avg (last 5)2.001.00
goals volatility (last 10)0.840.92
h2 goals (last 10)1.001.00
h2h win rate (last 5)0.300.70
ht lead rate (last 20)0.350.20
keeper form v10.680.71
league points64.0061.00
league rank4.007.00
matches since blank12.001.00
matches since clean sheet0.000.00
matches since win0.000.00
pass acc avg (last 5)76.2072.80
possession avg (last 5)55.2044.00
rest days8.008.00
scorer concentration0.240.17
season ppg1.781.56
skill v10.39-0.74
sot against avg (last 5)3.203.20
sot for avg (last 10)4.304.70
sot for avg (last 3)6.677.00
sot for avg (last 5)5.406.40
squad age26.0128.49
state index0.56-0.04
sterile dominance v10.26-1.36
threat rate (last 10)0.190.26
threat rate (last 3)0.310.39
threat rate (last 5)0.240.35
venue ppg (last 5)2.000.80