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Ajaccio 3–1 Niort

← Ligue 2 2016 · Fri, Apr 21, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: Stephanie Frappart, France

The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market

“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = our simulation. A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.

Who wins? (90 minutes)

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Ajaccio win44%2.21
Draw29%3.31
Niort win26%3.70

across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Timeline

5'⚽Mouaad Madri · Ajaccio
17'⚽Pape Abou Cissé · Ajaccio
29'⚽Romain Grange · Niort
42'⚽Riad Nouri · Ajaccio
56'🟨Alliou Dembele · Niort
77'🟨Riffi Mandanda · Ajaccio
87'🟨Dylan Bronn · Niort

from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks

The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in

Match stats

3Half-time score1

Pre-match form

What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.

MetricAjaccioNiort
accuracy ratio (last 10)0.390.34
accuracy ratio (last 3)0.510.32
accuracy ratio (last 5)0.470.29
blown lead rate (last 20)0.000.05
box share (last 5)0.530.64
cards avg (last 5)0.000.00
coach days902.00294.00
comeback rate (last 20)0.000.05
congestion 21d
Everything else we hold on this match · 1 more recorded fact — tap to expand
venueStade François-Coty
6.00
3.00
corner diff avg (last 5)-1.60-0.40
corners against avg (last 5)6.206.00
corners for avg (last 5)4.605.60
corners volatility (last 10)2.982.99
elo1435.411468.79
elo momentum (last 5)-19.878.52
eye test v10.63-0.41
eye trend v10.32-0.19
first sub minute (last 10)72.8065.60
form points (last 5)4.0010.00
goal diff avg (last 5)-0.600.00
goals against avg (last 5)3.401.20
goals for avg (last 5)2.801.20
goals volatility (last 10)1.371.03
h2 goals (last 10)0.200.60
h2h win rate (last 5)0.600.40
ht lead rate (last 20)0.200.25
keeper form v10.560.75
league points90.0056.00
league rank1.008.00
matches since blank7.000.00
matches since clean sheet3.002.00
matches since win3.002.00
pass acc avg (last 5)75.0077.40
possession avg (last 5)48.6046.40
rest days4.007.00
scorer concentration0.110.31
season ppg1.301.44
skill v1-0.19-0.10
sot against avg (last 5)6.206.40
sot for avg (last 10)4.204.20
sot for avg (last 3)5.333.33
sot for avg (last 5)5.803.20
squad age25.5726.40
state index-0.85-0.23
sterile dominance v1-0.32-0.25
threat rate (last 10)0.230.25
threat rate (last 3)0.230.23
threat rate (last 5)0.260.25
venue ppg (last 5)1.001.00