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RC Strasbourg Alsace 4–2 Ajaccio

← Ligue 2 2016 · Mon, Apr 17, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: Benoît Bastien, France

The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market

“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = our simulation. A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.

Who wins? (90 minutes)

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
RC Strasbourg Alsace win64%1.52
Draw23%4.16
Ajaccio win12%7.95

across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Timeline

15'⚽Mouaad Madri · Ajaccio
17'⚽Dimitri Liénard · RC Strasbourg Alsace
27'⚽Khalid Boutaïb · RC Strasbourg Alsace
58'⚽Khalid Boutaïb · RC Strasbourg Alsace
66'⚽Baptiste Guillaume · RC Strasbourg Alsace
86'⚽Mouaad Madri · Ajaccio

from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks

The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in

Match stats

2Half-time score1

Pre-match form

What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.

MetricRC Strasbourg AlsaceAjaccio
accuracy ratio (last 10)0.430.39
accuracy ratio (last 3)0.510.48
accuracy ratio (last 5)0.510.47
blown lead rate (last 20)0.000.00
box share (last 5)0.660.56
cards avg (last 5)0.000.00
coach days290.00898.00
comeback rate (last 20)0.050.00
congestion 21d
Everything else we hold on this match · 1 more recorded fact — tap to expand
venueStade de la Meinau
2.00
5.00
corner diff avg (last 5)-1.60-2.00
corners against avg (last 5)4.806.80
corners for avg (last 5)3.204.80
corners volatility (last 10)3.022.80
elo1514.481445.07
elo momentum (last 5)35.56-10.17
eye test v10.120.62
eye trend v1-0.160.22
first sub minute (last 10)58.2067.10
form points (last 5)10.005.00
goal diff avg (last 5)1.20-0.20
goals against avg (last 5)0.802.80
goals for avg (last 5)2.002.60
goals volatility (last 10)1.481.37
h2 goals (last 10)1.100.20
h2h win rate (last 5)0.600.40
ht lead rate (last 20)0.250.20
keeper form v10.670.60
league points61.0090.00
league rank5.001.00
matches since blank5.006.00
matches since clean sheet1.002.00
matches since win1.002.00
pass acc avg (last 5)67.0074.60
possession avg (last 5)39.4049.20
rest days9.002.83
scorer concentration0.260.11
season ppg1.651.32
skill v1-1.64-0.19
sot against avg (last 5)4.005.80
sot for avg (last 10)4.804.30
sot for avg (last 3)4.005.33
sot for avg (last 5)4.805.80
squad age28.0028.88
state index0.66-0.48
sterile dominance v1-1.19-0.28
threat rate (last 10)0.260.23
threat rate (last 3)0.220.21
threat rate (last 5)0.260.26
venue ppg (last 5)2.401.60