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Laval 5–2 Reims

← Ligue 2 2016 · Fri, Apr 14, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: Romain Lissorgue, France

The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market

“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = our simulation. A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.

Who wins? (90 minutes)

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Reims win45%2.19
Draw31%3.17
Laval win25%3.95

across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Timeline

2'⚽Pablo Chavarria · Reims
23'🟨Julian Jeanvier · Reims
26'⚽Grejohn Kyei · Reims
31'⚽Hassane Alla · Laval
35'🟨Malik Couturier · Laval
38'🟨Yoane Wissa · Laval
55'⚽Romain Bayard · Laval
75'⚽ (pen)Hassane Alla · Laval
77'⚽ (og)Anthony Weber · Laval
83'🟨Hamari Traoré · Reims
90'⚽Yoane Wissa · Laval

from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks

The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in

Match stats

1Half-time score2

Pre-match form

What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.

MetricLavalReims
accuracy ratio (last 10)0.310.32
accuracy ratio (last 3)0.290.34
accuracy ratio (last 5)0.270.34
blown lead rate (last 20)0.250.05
box share (last 5)0.660.76
cards avg (last 5)0.000.00
coach days2.00287.00
comeback rate (last 20)0.000.00
congestion 21d
Everything else we hold on this match · 1 more recorded fact — tap to expand
venueStade Francis-Le Basser
2.00
2.00
corner diff avg (last 5)2.604.60
corners against avg (last 5)3.803.80
corners for avg (last 5)6.408.40
corners volatility (last 10)2.642.92
elo1387.681538.29
elo momentum (last 5)-17.43-2.19
eye test v1-0.730.40
eye trend v1-0.060.27
first sub minute (last 10)65.9059.00
form points (last 5)3.008.00
goal diff avg (last 5)-1.000.40
goals against avg (last 5)1.401.00
goals for avg (last 5)0.401.40
goals volatility (last 10)0.740.88
h2 goals (last 10)0.200.80
h2h win rate (last 5)0.600.40
ht lead rate (last 20)0.300.30
keeper form v10.610.69
league points32.0061.00
league rank21.007.00
matches since blank0.002.00
matches since clean sheet3.003.00
matches since win13.003.00
pass acc avg (last 5)73.0076.20
possession avg (last 5)46.8054.60
rest days7.006.00
scorer concentration0.230.15
season ppg0.841.65
skill v1-0.520.35
sot against avg (last 5)4.203.00
sot for avg (last 10)3.404.40
sot for avg (last 3)3.005.67
sot for avg (last 5)2.805.20
squad age28.8827.06
state index-1.370.10
sterile dominance v1-0.300.03
threat rate (last 10)0.240.26
threat rate (last 3)0.210.28
threat rate (last 5)0.230.27
venue ppg (last 5)0.601.80