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Ajaccio 3–6 Racing Club de Lens

← Ligue 2 2016 · Mon, Apr 10, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: Lionel Jaffredo, France

The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market

“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = our simulation. A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.

Who wins? (90 minutes)

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Racing Club de Lens win45%2.18
Draw31%3.17
Ajaccio win24%4.00

across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Timeline

6'⚽Habib Habibou · Racing Club de Lens
24'⚽Thomas Ephestion · Racing Club de Lens
29'⚽Rayan Frikeche · Ajaccio
32'⚽Joris Sainati · Ajaccio
34'🟨Paul Babiloni · Ajaccio
35'⚽ (pen)Kévin Fortuné · Racing Club de Lens
39'⚽Abdelrafik Gerard · Racing Club de Lens
45'⚽Thomas Ephestion · Racing Club de Lens
45'⚽Marvin Gakpa · Ajaccio
73'⚽ (pen)Habib Habibou · Racing Club de Lens

from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks

The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in

Match stats

3Half-time score5

Pre-match form

What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.

MetricAjaccioRacing Club de Lens
accuracy ratio (last 10)0.340.33
accuracy ratio (last 3)0.420.23
accuracy ratio (last 5)0.360.27
blown lead rate (last 20)0.000.10
box share (last 5)0.640.57
cards avg (last 5)0.000.00
coach days891.00283.00
comeback rate (last 20)0.000.05
congestion 21d
Everything else we hold on this match · 1 more recorded fact — tap to expand
venueStade François-Coty
3.00
1.00
corner diff avg (last 5)-2.002.80
corners against avg (last 5)6.204.20
corners for avg (last 5)4.207.00
corners volatility (last 10)2.012.85
elo1462.371540.07
elo momentum (last 5)6.6824.08
eye test v1-0.03-0.14
eye trend v10.55-0.40
first sub minute (last 10)63.1060.60
form points (last 5)6.0012.00
goal diff avg (last 5)0.400.80
goals against avg (last 5)1.001.00
goals for avg (last 5)1.401.80
goals volatility (last 10)1.081.25
h2 goals (last 10)0.401.30
h2h win rate (last 5)0.400.60
ht lead rate (last 20)0.200.20
keeper form v10.630.63
league points89.0059.00
league rank1.006.00
matches since blank4.000.00
matches since clean sheet0.001.00
matches since win0.001.00
pass acc avg (last 5)74.2079.20
possession avg (last 5)49.0059.00
rest days2.049.00
scorer concentration0.130.21
season ppg1.351.64
skill v1-0.240.96
sot against avg (last 5)3.402.40
sot for avg (last 10)3.604.10
sot for avg (last 3)5.672.33
sot for avg (last 5)4.403.80
squad age28.5426.01
state index-0.070.49
sterile dominance v1-0.180.73
threat rate (last 10)0.230.21
threat rate (last 3)0.280.17
threat rate (last 5)0.240.22
venue ppg (last 5)1.201.60