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Le Havre AC 2–0 Laval

← Ligue 2 2016 · Fri, Apr 7, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: Olivier Thual, France

The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market

“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = our simulation. A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.

Who wins? (90 minutes)

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Le Havre AC win50%1.97
Draw31%3.16
Laval win20%4.99

across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Timeline

8'🟨Denys Bain · Le Havre AC
20'🟨Malik Couturier · Laval
61'🟨Alexandre Bonnet · Le Havre AC
68'⚽Barnabás Bese · Le Havre AC
72'🟨Jean-Pascal Fontaine · Le Havre AC
90'🟨Hassane Alla · Laval
90'⚽Nathael Julan · Le Havre AC

from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks

The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in

Match stats

0Half-time score0

Pre-match form

What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.

MetricLe Havre ACLaval
accuracy ratio (last 10)0.320.30
accuracy ratio (last 3)0.450.22
accuracy ratio (last 5)0.390.27
blown lead rate (last 20)0.100.25
box share (last 5)0.560.68
cards avg (last 5)0.000.00
coach days188.00157.00
comeback rate (last 20)0.000.00
congestion 21d
Everything else we hold on this match · 1 more recorded fact — tap to expand
venueStade Océane
2.00
2.00
corner diff avg (last 5)-0.203.00
corners against avg (last 5)6.002.80
corners for avg (last 5)5.805.80
corners volatility (last 10)1.512.46
elo1488.421396.51
elo momentum (last 5)6.93-23.21
eye test v10.18-0.56
eye trend v10.18-0.18
first sub minute (last 10)68.2064.80
form points (last 5)8.003.00
goal diff avg (last 5)0.20-1.00
goals against avg (last 5)0.401.80
goals for avg (last 5)0.600.80
goals volatility (last 10)1.150.74
h2 goals (last 10)0.200.30
h2h win rate (last 5)0.700.30
ht lead rate (last 20)0.250.30
keeper form v10.760.61
league points45.0032.00
league rank12.0021.00
matches since blank1.001.00
matches since clean sheet1.002.00
matches since win3.0012.00
pass acc avg (last 5)74.8072.20
possession avg (last 5)50.4047.20
rest days7.007.00
scorer concentration0.290.23
season ppg1.220.86
skill v1-0.09-0.57
sot against avg (last 5)4.204.00
sot for avg (last 10)4.003.20
sot for avg (last 3)4.332.33
sot for avg (last 5)4.803.20
squad age26.5527.49
state index0.02-1.35
sterile dominance v1-0.09-0.42
threat rate (last 10)0.240.23
threat rate (last 3)0.200.21
threat rate (last 5)0.240.25
venue ppg (last 5)2.000.60