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Stade Brestois 29 1–1 Tours

← Ligue 2 2016 · Fri, Apr 7, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: Sylvain Palhies, France

The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market

“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = our simulation. A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.

Who wins? (90 minutes)

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Stade Brestois 29 win51%1.92
Draw28%3.45
Tours win21%4.71

across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Timeline

12'⚽Neal Maupay · Stade Brestois 29
15'⚽Denis Bouanga · Tours
22'🟨Gaëtan Belaud · Stade Brestois 29
44'🟨Neal Maupay · Stade Brestois 29
50'🟨Haris Belkebla · Tours
51'🟨Mohamed Maouche · Tours
86'🟨Bingourou Kamara · Tours
88'🟨Denis Bouanga · Tours

from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks

The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in

Match stats

1Half-time score1

Pre-match form

What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.

MetricStade Brestois 29Tours
accuracy ratio (last 10)0.410.45
accuracy ratio (last 3)0.420.41
accuracy ratio (last 5)0.450.41
blown lead rate (last 20)0.050.15
box share (last 5)0.570.53
cards avg (last 5)0.000.00
coach days280.0037.00
comeback rate (last 20)0.000.00
congestion 21d
Everything else we hold on this match · 1 more recorded fact — tap to expand
venueStade Francis-Le-Blé
2.00
2.00
corner diff avg (last 5)0.800.20
corners against avg (last 5)3.804.20
corners for avg (last 5)4.604.40
corners volatility (last 10)2.161.96
elo1519.631419.89
elo momentum (last 5)3.1061.29
eye test v10.080.98
eye trend v10.150.19
first sub minute (last 10)62.4061.10
form points (last 5)7.0011.00
goal diff avg (last 5)0.201.60
goals against avg (last 5)1.401.20
goals for avg (last 5)1.602.80
goals volatility (last 10)0.711.25
h2 goals (last 10)0.900.70
h2h win rate (last 5)0.700.30
ht lead rate (last 20)0.350.40
keeper form v10.690.64
league points60.0034.00
league rank3.0019.00
matches since blank10.005.00
matches since clean sheet0.001.00
matches since win0.000.00
pass acc avg (last 5)78.4078.60
possession avg (last 5)57.0052.60
rest days6.007.00
scorer concentration0.240.23
season ppg1.760.92
skill v10.740.45
sot against avg (last 5)3.403.40
sot for avg (last 10)3.705.40
sot for avg (last 3)4.006.67
sot for avg (last 5)4.206.40
squad age27.3623.40
state index0.180.46
sterile dominance v10.89-0.19
threat rate (last 10)0.170.24
threat rate (last 3)0.180.32
threat rate (last 5)0.180.29
venue ppg (last 5)1.801.00