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Racing Club de Lens 0–2 Stade Brestois 29

← Ligue 2 2016 · Sat, Apr 1, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: Ruddy Buquet, France

The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market

“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = our simulation. A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.

Who wins? (90 minutes)

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Racing Club de Lens win51%1.92
Draw29%3.36
Stade Brestois 29 win20%4.86

across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Timeline

29'🟨Jean-Kévin Duverne · Racing Club de Lens
32'🟨Karim Hafez · Racing Club de Lens
34'⚽Cristian Battocchio · Stade Brestois 29
43'🟨Bruno Grougi · Stade Brestois 29
69'🟨Luciano Castan · Stade Brestois 29
90'🟨Kenny Lala · Racing Club de Lens
90'🟨Neal Maupay · Stade Brestois 29
90'⚽Steven Joseph-Monrose · Stade Brestois 29

from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks

The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in

Match stats

0Half-time score1

Pre-match form

What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.

MetricRacing Club de LensStade Brestois 29
accuracy ratio (last 10)0.320.38
accuracy ratio (last 3)0.270.38
accuracy ratio (last 5)0.270.43
blown lead rate (last 20)0.100.05
box share (last 5)0.610.52
cards avg (last 5)0.000.00
coach days274.00274.00
comeback rate (last 20)0.050.00
congestion 21d
Everything else we hold on this match · 1 more recorded fact — tap to expand
venueStade Bollaert-Delelis
2.00
2.00
corner diff avg (last 5)2.600.40
corners against avg (last 5)4.804.40
corners for avg (last 5)7.404.80
corners volatility (last 10)2.852.32
elo1560.081499.63
elo momentum (last 5)31.82-4.93
eye test v10.25-0.22
eye trend v10.250.27
first sub minute (last 10)62.3061.30
form points (last 5)12.007.00
goal diff avg (last 5)1.000.20
goals against avg (last 5)1.001.40
goals for avg (last 5)2.001.60
goals volatility (last 10)1.250.82
h2 goals (last 10)1.400.80
h2h win rate (last 5)0.600.40
ht lead rate (last 20)0.200.30
keeper form v10.580.72
league points59.0057.00
league rank3.006.00
matches since blank6.009.00
matches since clean sheet0.000.00
matches since win0.000.00
pass acc avg (last 5)81.8079.00
possession avg (last 5)60.8057.00
rest days13.9614.96
scorer concentration0.210.26
season ppg1.691.73
skill v11.350.80
sot against avg (last 5)2.203.80
sot for avg (last 10)4.203.50
sot for avg (last 3)5.004.67
sot for avg (last 5)4.403.60
squad age26.4427.23
state index0.74-0.07
sterile dominance v10.731.13
threat rate (last 10)0.220.17
threat rate (last 3)0.290.19
threat rate (last 5)0.250.16
venue ppg (last 5)2.201.00