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Sochaux 2–1 Nimes

← Ligue 2 2016 · Fri, Mar 17, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: Aurelien Petit, France

The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market

“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = our simulation. A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.

Who wins? (90 minutes)

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Sochaux win41%2.39
Draw32%3.04
Nimes win27%3.61

across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Timeline

23'🟨Mohamed Larbi · Sochaux
31'🟨Gael Angoula · Nimes
41'🟨Fabien Garcia · Nimes
60'🟨Fabien Garcia · Nimes
60'🟥Fabien Garcia · Nimes
65'🟨Sada Thioub · Nimes
66'⚽Florian Martin · Sochaux
68'⚽Faneva Andriatsima · Sochaux
84'⚽Anthony Briançon · Nimes
86'🟨Marcus Thuram · Sochaux
90'🟨Florian Tardieu · Sochaux
90'🟨Renaud Ripart · Nimes

from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks

The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in

Match stats

0Half-time score0

Pre-match form

What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.

MetricSochauxNimes
accuracy ratio (last 10)0.220.37
accuracy ratio (last 3)0.160.26
accuracy ratio (last 5)0.210.39
blown lead rate (last 20)0.050.20
box share (last 5)0.430.51
cards avg (last 5)0.000.00
coach days533.00502.00
comeback rate (last 20)0.000.05
congestion 21d
Everything else we hold on this match · 1 more recorded fact — tap to expand
venueStade Bonal
3.00
5.00
corner diff avg (last 5)-2.803.60
corners against avg (last 5)6.603.60
corners for avg (last 5)3.807.20
corners volatility (last 10)2.421.96
elo1473.301549.23
elo momentum (last 5)-8.4323.14
eye test v1-0.890.19
eye trend v10.04-0.32
first sub minute (last 10)54.0056.20
form points (last 5)5.0011.00
goal diff avg (last 5)-0.200.80
goals against avg (last 5)0.800.40
goals for avg (last 5)0.601.20
goals volatility (last 10)0.950.92
h2 goals (last 10)0.400.90
h2h win rate (last 5)0.600.40
ht lead rate (last 20)0.300.40
keeper form v10.690.79
league points45.0055.00
league rank9.004.00
matches since blank1.005.00
matches since clean sheet2.000.00
matches since win4.000.00
pass acc avg (last 5)70.8069.20
possession avg (last 5)47.0048.80
rest days4.007.00
scorer concentration0.480.35
season ppg1.411.57
skill v1-0.74-0.78
sot against avg (last 5)3.603.80
sot for avg (last 10)2.404.90
sot for avg (last 3)1.674.33
sot for avg (last 5)2.404.60
squad age27.1524.21
state index-0.480.46
sterile dominance v1-0.53-0.79
threat rate (last 10)0.230.33
threat rate (last 3)0.240.34
threat rate (last 5)0.250.29
venue ppg (last 5)1.002.20