Red Star 0–1 Amiens

← Ligue 2 2016 · Fri, Mar 17, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: Hakim Ben el Salem Hadj, France

The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market

“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = our simulation. A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.

Who wins? (90 minutes)

Outcome	Market says	Best price
Amiens win	37%	2.66
Draw	32%	3.03
Red Star win	31%	3.12

across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Timeline

70'	⚽	Charly Charrier · Amiens
90'	🟨	Sekou Keita · Red Star

from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks

The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in

Match stats

Half-time score

Pre-match form

What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.

Metric	Red Star	Amiens
accuracy ratio (last 10)	0.42	0.37
accuracy ratio (last 3)	0.47	0.23
accuracy ratio (last 5)	0.47	0.29
blown lead rate (last 20)	0.15	0.05
box share (last 5)	0.59	0.64
cards avg (last 5)	0.00	0.00
coach days	1720.00	837.00
comeback rate (last 20)	0.00	0.05
congestion 21d	3.00	5.00
corner diff avg (last 5)	-5.80	1.40
corners against avg (last 5)	7.80	4.20
corners for avg (last 5)	2.00	5.60
corners volatility (last 10)	1.79	2.26
elo	1427.60	1455.94
elo momentum (last 5)	-3.25	-29.53
eye test v1	0.59	-0.60
eye trend v1	0.29	-0.44
first sub minute (last 10)	52.70	55.60
form points (last 5)	5.00	6.00
goal diff avg (last 5)	-0.40	-1.60
goals against avg (last 5)	1.80	2.40
goals for avg (last 5)	1.40	0.80
goals volatility (last 10)	0.92	1.57
h2 goals (last 10)	0.60	1.20
ht lead rate (last 20)	0.35	0.15
keeper form v1	0.73	0.68
league points	31.00	55.00
league rank	21.00	6.00
matches since blank	0.00	2.00
matches since clean sheet	5.00	6.00
matches since win	2.00	0.00
pass acc avg (last 5)	72.00	76.00
possession avg (last 5)	48.40	53.60
rest days	7.00	6.83
scorer concentration	0.17	0.19
season ppg	0.97	1.57
skill v1	-0.52	0.25
sot against avg (last 5)	6.80	4.00
sot for avg (last 10)	4.90	4.20
sot for avg (last 3)	6.67	2.67
sot for avg (last 5)	6.00	3.00
squad age	26.89	27.87
state index	-0.55	-0.90
sterile dominance v1	-0.44	0.49
threat rate (last 10)	0.24	0.23
threat rate (last 3)	0.27	0.20
threat rate (last 5)	0.26	0.20
venue ppg (last 5)	0.80	0.80

Everything else we hold on this match · 1 more recorded fact — tap to expand

venue

Stade Jean-Bouin