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RC Strasbourg Alsace 4–1 Stade Brestois 29

← Ligue 2 2016 · Sat, Mar 11, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: Nicolas Rainville, France

The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market

“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = our simulation. A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.

Who wins? (90 minutes)

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
RC Strasbourg Alsace win41%2.40
Draw32%3.02
Stade Brestois 29 win27%3.61

across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Timeline

29'⚽Baptiste Guillaume · RC Strasbourg Alsace
32'🟨Brendan Chardonnet · Stade Brestois 29
35'🟨Johan Gastien · Stade Brestois 29
56'⚽Valentin Lavigne · Stade Brestois 29
58'🟨Éric Marester · RC Strasbourg Alsace
62'⚽Dimitri Liénard · RC Strasbourg Alsace
80'⚽Baptiste Guillaume · RC Strasbourg Alsace
90'⚽Khalid Boutaïb · RC Strasbourg Alsace

from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks

The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in

Match stats

1Half-time score0

Pre-match form

What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.

MetricRC Strasbourg AlsaceStade Brestois 29
accuracy ratio (last 10)0.410.37
accuracy ratio (last 3)0.420.43
accuracy ratio (last 5)0.380.40
blown lead rate (last 20)0.000.05
box share (last 5)0.620.46
cards avg (last 5)0.000.00
coach days253.00253.00
comeback rate (last 20)0.050.00
congestion 21d
Everything else we hold on this match · 1 more recorded fact — tap to expand
venueStade de la Meinau
3.00
3.00
corner diff avg (last 5)2.400.80
corners against avg (last 5)3.404.00
corners for avg (last 5)5.804.80
corners volatility (last 10)3.022.99
elo1469.381505.18
elo momentum (last 5)-14.99-16.25
eye test v10.45-0.41
eye trend v1-0.100.10
first sub minute (last 10)55.4064.50
form points (last 5)7.005.00
goal diff avg (last 5)0.00-0.20
goals against avg (last 5)1.801.40
goals for avg (last 5)1.801.20
goals volatility (last 10)1.350.67
h2 goals (last 10)1.300.70
h2h win rate (last 5)0.600.40
ht lead rate (last 20)0.200.25
keeper form v1—0.80
league points51.0054.00
league rank7.005.00
matches since blank1.007.00
matches since clean sheet7.002.00
matches since win2.002.00
pass acc avg (last 5)72.8078.80
possession avg (last 5)51.4057.00
rest days5.008.00
scorer concentration0.260.29
season ppg1.551.74
skill v1-0.230.77
sot against avg (last 5)5.603.80
sot for avg (last 10)5.703.80
sot for avg (last 3)5.673.67
sot for avg (last 5)5.403.20
squad age27.3528.00
state index-0.18-0.25
sterile dominance v1-0.411.16
threat rate (last 10)0.270.19
threat rate (last 3)0.280.17
threat rate (last 5)0.280.15
venue ppg (last 5)2.401.60