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Tours 3–1 Orleans

← Ligue 2 2016 · Fri, Mar 10, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: Eric Wattellier, France

The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market

“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = our simulation. A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.

Who wins? (90 minutes)

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Tours win41%2.40
Draw33%2.96
Orleans win26%3.69

across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Timeline

20'🟨Gauthier Pinaud · Orleans
32'⚽Denis Bouanga · Tours
47'⚽Florian Miguel · Tours
57'⚽Romain Armand · Orleans
58'🟨Florian Miguel · Tours
90'⚽Denis Bouanga · Tours

from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks

The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in

Match stats

1Half-time score0

Pre-match form

What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.

MetricToursOrleans
accuracy ratio (last 10)0.430.32
accuracy ratio (last 3)0.460.38
accuracy ratio (last 5)0.480.42
blown lead rate (last 20)0.150.00
box share (last 5)0.630.61
cards avg (last 5)0.000.00
coach days9.001713.00
comeback rate (last 20)0.000.05
congestion 21d
Everything else we hold on this match · 1 more recorded fact — tap to expand
venueStade de la Vallée-du-Cher
7.00
3.00
corner diff avg (last 5)-1.200.60
corners against avg (last 5)3.805.80
corners for avg (last 5)2.606.40
corners volatility (last 10)1.782.59
elo1367.641420.88
elo momentum (last 5)6.0236.63
eye test v10.390.17
eye trend v1-0.080.69
first sub minute (last 10)59.1067.30
form points (last 5)4.0010.00
goal diff avg (last 5)-0.400.60
goals against avg (last 5)1.601.20
goals for avg (last 5)1.201.80
goals volatility (last 10)0.920.92
h2 goals (last 10)0.400.90
ht lead rate (last 20)0.250.10
keeper form v10.620.61
league points25.0033.00
league rank22.0018.00
matches since blank2.007.00
matches since clean sheet2.001.00
matches since win12.001.00
pass acc avg (last 5)73.6071.80
possession avg (last 5)51.2043.00
rest days6.836.00
scorer concentration0.210.18
season ppg0.741.06
skill v1-0.17-0.93
sot against avg (last 5)4.803.00
sot for avg (last 10)4.903.20
sot for avg (last 3)5.335.00
sot for avg (last 5)5.404.60
squad age23.4529.79
state index-1.340.03
sterile dominance v10.05-0.99
threat rate (last 10)0.260.25
threat rate (last 3)0.220.37
threat rate (last 5)0.220.29
venue ppg (last 5)0.601.20