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Reims 1–1 Stade Brestois 29

← Ligue 2 2016 · Mon, Feb 27, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: Antony Gautier, France

The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market

“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = our simulation. A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.

Who wins? (90 minutes)

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Reims win45%2.18
Draw32%3.09
Stade Brestois 29 win24%4.14

across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Timeline

15'⚽ (pen)Cristian Battocchio · Stade Brestois 29
18'🟨Cristian Battocchio · Stade Brestois 29
41'🟨Bruno Grougi · Stade Brestois 29
49'⚽Pablo Chavarria · Reims
64'🟨Bryan Pelé · Stade Brestois 29
87'🟨Antoine Devaux · Reims

from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks

The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in

Match stats

0Half-time score1

Pre-match form

What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.

MetricReimsStade Brestois 29
accuracy ratio (last 10)0.300.36
accuracy ratio (last 3)0.320.35
accuracy ratio (last 5)0.350.38
blown lead rate (last 20)0.100.05
box share (last 5)0.830.43
cards avg (last 5)0.000.00
coach days241.00241.00
comeback rate (last 20)0.000.00
congestion 21d
Everything else we hold on this match · 1 more recorded fact — tap to expand
venueStade Auguste-Delaune
4.00
3.00
corner diff avg (last 5)-1.400.40
corners against avg (last 5)6.203.60
corners for avg (last 5)4.804.00
corners volatility (last 10)2.412.49
elo1542.921516.53
elo momentum (last 5)-10.5018.28
eye test v1-0.52-0.49
eye trend v1-0.11-0.35
first sub minute (last 10)60.0063.30
form points (last 5)6.0010.00
goal diff avg (last 5)0.000.60
goals against avg (last 5)0.800.80
goals for avg (last 5)0.801.40
goals volatility (last 10)0.670.82
h2 goals (last 10)0.500.70
h2h win rate (last 5)0.600.40
ht lead rate (last 20)0.350.25
keeper form v1—0.82
league points52.0053.00
league rank3.002.00
matches since blank1.005.00
matches since clean sheet0.000.00
matches since win0.000.00
pass acc avg (last 5)73.2078.40
possession avg (last 5)48.2054.00
rest days10.009.00
scorer concentration0.110.30
season ppg1.681.83
skill v1-0.420.52
sot against avg (last 5)3.203.40
sot for avg (last 10)3.404.00
sot for avg (last 3)3.002.33
sot for avg (last 5)3.403.20
squad age26.5728.34
state index-0.020.35
sterile dominance v1-0.010.90
threat rate (last 10)0.250.20
threat rate (last 3)0.190.12
threat rate (last 5)0.200.16
venue ppg (last 5)1.602.00