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Niort 2–3 Red Star

← Ligue 2 2016 · Fri, Feb 24, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: Eric Wattellier, France

The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market

“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = our simulation. A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.

Who wins? (90 minutes)

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Niort win47%2.06
Draw32%3.04
Red Star win21%4.73

across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Timeline

1'⚽Xavier Chavalerin · Red Star
32'🟥Romain Grange · Niort
37'⚽Idriss Mhirsi · Red Star
45'🟨David Kiki · Niort
45'⚽Laurent Agouazi · Niort
56'🟨Didier Lamkel Zé · Niort
60'⚽ (pen)Julien Toudic · Red Star
79'🟨Jean-Charles Castelletto · Red Star
81'🟨Zakaria Grich · Niort
81'⚽Junior Sambia · Niort
86'🟨Jean-Charles Castelletto · Red Star
86'🟥Jean-Charles Castelletto · Red Star
90'🟨Lloyd Palun · Red Star

from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks

The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in

Match stats

1Half-time score2

Pre-match form

What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.

MetricNiortRed Star
accuracy ratio (last 10)0.370.36
accuracy ratio (last 3)0.340.42
accuracy ratio (last 5)0.380.42
blown lead rate (last 20)0.100.10
box share (last 5)0.620.58
cards avg (last 5)0.000.00
coach days238.001699.00
comeback rate (last 20)0.050.00
congestion 21d
Everything else we hold on this match · 1 more recorded fact — tap to expand
venueStade René-Gaillard
7.00
4.00
corner diff avg (last 5)-0.20-3.00
corners against avg (last 5)4.206.20
corners for avg (last 5)4.003.20
corners volatility (last 10)2.041.89
elo1472.441432.59
elo momentum (last 5)-13.4210.63
eye test v1-0.03-0.33
eye trend v1-0.120.24
first sub minute (last 10)67.8054.60
form points (last 5)6.006.00
goal diff avg (last 5)-0.600.20
goals against avg (last 5)1.800.80
goals for avg (last 5)1.201.00
goals volatility (last 10)1.430.67
h2 goals (last 10)0.600.40
ht lead rate (last 20)0.400.25
keeper form v10.650.68
league points45.0028.00
league rank7.0021.00
matches since blank0.004.00
matches since clean sheet7.002.00
matches since win2.002.00
pass acc avg (last 5)73.8073.00
possession avg (last 5)54.8049.40
rest days6.837.00
scorer concentration0.330.15
season ppg1.410.97
skill v10.09-0.37
sot against avg (last 5)4.203.80
sot for avg (last 10)4.403.60
sot for avg (last 3)4.004.33
sot for avg (last 5)4.403.80
squad age26.6926.97
state index-0.36-0.34
sterile dominance v10.330.17
threat rate (last 10)0.220.22
threat rate (last 3)0.210.23
threat rate (last 5)0.210.19
venue ppg (last 5)3.001.00