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RC Strasbourg Alsace 0–2 Clermont

← Ligue 2 2016 Β· Fri, Feb 24, 03:00 PM UTC Β· ref: William Lavis, France

The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market

β€œMarket” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin β€” the world's best guess. β€œModel” = our simulation. A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) β€” it's never about picking the winner.

Who wins? (90 minutes)

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
RC Strasbourg Alsace win53%1.85
Draw29%3.35
Clermont win18%5.41

across 1 bookmaker Β· probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Timeline

15'🟨Michel Espinosa · Clermont
30'⚽Remy Dugimont · Clermont
51'🟨Thomas Fontaine · Clermont
54'🟨Joseph Lopy · Clermont
63'🟨Karim Djellabi · Clermont
78'🟨Mehdi Jeannin · Clermont
79'⚽Remy Dugimont · Clermont

from ESPN event data Β· goals, cards and shootout kicks

The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in

Match stats

0Half-time score1

Pre-match form

What each side looked like walking in β€” computed only from games before this one.

MetricRC Strasbourg AlsaceClermont
accuracy ratio (last 10)0.420.34
accuracy ratio (last 3)0.370.35
accuracy ratio (last 5)0.400.34
box share (last 5)0.590.57
cards avg (last 5)0.000.00
coach days238.001699.00
congestion 21d5.004.00
corners volatility (last 10)2.382.17
elo
Everything else we hold on this match Β· 1 more recorded fact β€” tap to expand
venueStade de la Meinau
1466.12
1455.10
elo momentum (last 5)17.77-50.47
eye test v10.61-0.12
eye trend v1-0.170.02
first sub minute (last 10)61.9052.40
form points (last 5)10.001.00
goal diff avg (last 5)0.20-1.00
goals against avg (last 5)1.801.60
goals for avg (last 5)2.000.60
goals volatility (last 10)1.231.25
keeper form v10.61β€”
league points43.0030.00
league rank3.0015.00
matches since blank3.000.00
matches since clean sheet4.007.00
matches since win0.006.00
pass acc avg (last 5)76.0074.00
possession avg (last 5)51.2048.40
rest days3.067.00
scorer concentration0.240.26
season ppg1.651.15
skill v10.07-0.33
sot against avg (last 5)5.005.20
sot for avg (last 10)6.004.50
sot for avg (last 3)6.334.33
sot for avg (last 5)5.804.00
state index0.17-1.13
sterile dominance v1-0.21-0.38
threat rate (last 10)0.300.26
threat rate (last 3)0.310.27
threat rate (last 5)0.270.26
venue ppg (last 5)3.001.00