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Amiens 0–2 Orleans

← Ligue 2 2016 · Fri, Feb 24, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: Jeremy Stinat, France

The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market

“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = our simulation. A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.

Who wins? (90 minutes)

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Amiens win52%1.88
Draw31%3.15
Orleans win17%5.73

across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Timeline

30'⚽Mickaël Barreto · Orleans
57'🟨Ferris N'Goma · Orleans
90'🟨Esseid Belkalem · Orleans
90'⚽Mickaël Barreto · Orleans

from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks

The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in

Match stats

0Half-time score1

Pre-match form

What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.

MetricAmiensOrleans
accuracy ratio (last 10)0.400.31
accuracy ratio (last 3)0.500.40
accuracy ratio (last 5)0.450.35
blown lead rate (last 20)0.050.05
box share (last 5)0.510.56
cards avg (last 5)0.000.00
coach days816.001699.00
comeback rate (last 20)0.050.05
congestion 21d5.004.00
corner diff avg (last 5)1.40-2.00
Everything else we hold on this match · 1 more recorded fact — tap to expand
venueStade de la Licorne
corners against avg (last 5)2.606.60
corners for avg (last 5)4.004.60
corners volatility (last 10)1.152.59
elo1485.481400.59
elo momentum (last 5)40.9048.71
eye test v10.12-0.61
eye trend v1-0.010.34
first sub minute (last 10)58.6063.90
form points (last 5)10.0012.00
goal diff avg (last 5)2.000.80
goals against avg (last 5)0.601.00
goals for avg (last 5)2.601.80
goals volatility (last 10)1.480.99
h2 goals (last 10)1.301.00
ht lead rate (last 20)0.200.15
keeper form v10.720.63
league points49.0029.00
league rank5.0021.00
matches since blank9.005.00
matches since clean sheet1.003.00
matches since win1.000.00
pass acc avg (last 5)74.0069.40
possession avg (last 5)52.4043.00
rest days7.004.00
scorer concentration0.200.20
season ppg1.631.00
skill v1-0.05-1.19
sot against avg (last 5)4.003.60
sot for avg (last 10)4.503.20
sot for avg (last 3)4.334.00
sot for avg (last 5)4.603.20
squad age27.2229.67
state index0.62-0.01
sterile dominance v10.18-0.71
threat rate (last 10)0.230.25
threat rate (last 3)0.180.26
threat rate (last 5)0.210.23
venue ppg (last 5)2.400.60