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Orleans 2–1 Racing Club de Lens

← Ligue 2 2016 · Mon, Feb 20, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: Lionel Jaffredo, France

The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market

“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = our simulation. A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.

Who wins? (90 minutes)

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Racing Club de Lens win41%2.37
Draw32%3.02
Orleans win27%3.67

across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Timeline

34'🟨Livio Nabab · Orleans
34'🟨Cristian López · Racing Club de Lens
35'🟨John Bostock · Racing Club de Lens
42'🟨Mickaël Barreto · Orleans
43'🟨Esseid Belkalem · Orleans
43'🟨Dušan Cvetinović · Racing Club de Lens
52'⚽Livio Nabab · Orleans
83'⚽ (pen)Karim Ziani · Orleans
89'⚽Habib Habibou · Racing Club de Lens

from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks

The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in

Match stats

0Half-time score0

Pre-match form

What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.

MetricOrleansRacing Club de Lens
accuracy ratio (last 10)0.330.34
accuracy ratio (last 3)0.390.34
accuracy ratio (last 5)0.330.36
blown lead rate (last 20)0.050.10
box share (last 5)0.600.64
cards avg (last 5)0.000.00
coach days1695.00234.00
comeback rate (last 20)0.050.05
congestion 21d
Everything else we hold on this match · 1 more recorded fact — tap to expand
venueStade de la Source
3.00
5.00
corner diff avg (last 5)-2.402.40
corners against avg (last 5)6.804.00
corners for avg (last 5)4.406.40
corners volatility (last 10)2.513.40
elo1388.331528.26
elo momentum (last 5)30.687.66
eye test v1-0.850.04
eye trend v10.160.24
first sub minute (last 10)59.4062.10
form points (last 5)9.007.00
goal diff avg (last 5)0.400.40
goals against avg (last 5)1.000.20
goals for avg (last 5)1.400.60
goals volatility (last 10)0.991.23
h2 goals (last 10)0.800.80
ht lead rate (last 20)0.150.25
keeper form v10.720.64
league points26.0047.00
league rank21.006.00
matches since blank4.001.00
matches since clean sheet2.001.00
matches since win1.000.00
pass acc avg (last 5)69.2080.60
possession avg (last 5)45.0060.60
rest days7.007.00
scorer concentration0.210.24
season ppg0.931.57
skill v1-1.071.20
sot against avg (last 5)3.603.00
sot for avg (last 10)3.403.70
sot for avg (last 3)3.674.33
sot for avg (last 5)2.804.00
squad age29.3426.46
state index-0.120.00
sterile dominance v1-0.391.09
threat rate (last 10)0.230.19
threat rate (last 3)0.210.22
threat rate (last 5)0.200.20
venue ppg (last 5)1.401.00