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Clermont 0–1 Reims

← Ligue 2 2016 Β· Fri, Feb 17, 03:00 PM UTC Β· ref: Yohann Rouinsard, France

The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market

β€œMarket” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin β€” the world's best guess. β€œModel” = our simulation. A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) β€” it's never about picking the winner.

Who wins? (90 minutes)

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Clermont win36%2.73
Reims win32%3.01
Draw32%3.06

across 1 bookmaker Β· probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Timeline

14'🟨Romain Metanire · Reims
37'🟨Cedric Avinel · Clermont
50'⚽Pablo Chavarria · Reims
55'🟨Antoine Devaux · Reims
80'🟨Pablo Chavarria · Reims
83'🟨Julien Laporte · Clermont

from ESPN event data Β· goals, cards and shootout kicks

The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in

Match stats

0Half-time score0

Pre-match form

What each side looked like walking in β€” computed only from games before this one.

MetricClermontReims
accuracy ratio (last 10)0.310.26
accuracy ratio (last 3)0.390.26
accuracy ratio (last 5)0.390.26
box share (last 5)0.620.84
cards avg (last 5)0.000.00
coach days1692.00231.00
congestion 21d4.004.00
corners volatility (last 10)2.172.42
elo1466.16
Everything else we hold on this match Β· 1 more recorded fact β€” tap to expand
venueStade Gabriel Montpied
1489.24
elo momentum (last 5)-37.41-9.99
eye test v10.05-0.62
eye trend v10.11-0.12
first sub minute (last 10)50.2058.40
form points (last 5)2.006.00
goal diff avg (last 5)-0.800.00
goals against avg (last 5)2.000.60
goals for avg (last 5)1.200.60
goals volatility (last 10)1.250.79
keeper form v10.62β€”
league points30.0039.00
league rank14.007.00
matches since blank3.000.00
matches since clean sheet6.003.00
matches since win5.003.00
pass acc avg (last 5)74.4076.00
possession avg (last 5)49.6049.60
rest days3.976.21
scorer concentration0.260.12
season ppg1.201.56
skill v1-0.21-0.05
sot against avg (last 5)5.002.40
sot for avg (last 10)4.103.10
sot for avg (last 3)4.002.67
sot for avg (last 5)4.402.80
state index-0.82-0.42
sterile dominance v1-0.21-0.03
threat rate (last 10)0.250.25
threat rate (last 3)0.240.18
threat rate (last 5)0.250.23
venue ppg (last 5)1.601.00