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RC Strasbourg Alsace 3–2 Orleans

← Ligue 2 2016 · Mon, Feb 13, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: Thomas Leonard, France

The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market

“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = our simulation. A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.

Who wins? (90 minutes)

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
RC Strasbourg Alsace win54%1.81
Draw28%3.49
Orleans win18%5.35

across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Timeline

12'⚽Jérémy Blayac · RC Strasbourg Alsace
15'⚽Jeremy Grimm · RC Strasbourg Alsace
19'🟨Anthony Gonçalves · RC Strasbourg Alsace
39'🟨Jeremy Grimm · RC Strasbourg Alsace
57'🟨Ferris N'Goma · Orleans
58'⚽Khalid Boutaïb · RC Strasbourg Alsace
76'⚽Romain Armand · Orleans
84'🟨Abdallah Ndour · RC Strasbourg Alsace
88'🟨Jeremy Grimm · RC Strasbourg Alsace
88'🟥Jeremy Grimm · RC Strasbourg Alsace
90'⚽Benjaloud Youssouf · Orleans

from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks

The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in

Match stats

2Half-time score0

Pre-match form

What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.

MetricRC Strasbourg AlsaceOrleans
accuracy ratio (last 10)0.380.31
accuracy ratio (last 3)0.430.28
accuracy ratio (last 5)0.450.22
blown lead rate (last 20)0.000.05
box share (last 5)0.610.67
cards avg (last 5)0.000.00
coach days227.001688.00
comeback rate (last 20)0.000.05
congestion 21d
Everything else we hold on this match · 1 more recorded fact — tap to expand
venueStade de la Meinau
5.00
3.00
corner diff avg (last 5)-0.40-2.60
corners against avg (last 5)5.206.40
corners for avg (last 5)4.803.80
corners volatility (last 10)1.582.54
elo1484.361394.26
elo momentum (last 5)-7.3028.86
eye test v10.55-1.32
eye trend v1-0.13-0.28
first sub minute (last 10)53.9062.60
form points (last 5)7.009.00
goal diff avg (last 5)-0.800.40
goals against avg (last 5)2.000.60
goals for avg (last 5)1.201.00
goals volatility (last 10)1.160.99
h2 goals (last 10)1.100.80
ht lead rate (last 20)0.200.15
keeper form v10.570.80
league points44.0026.00
league rank7.0021.00
matches since blank0.003.00
matches since clean sheet2.001.00
matches since win2.000.00
pass acc avg (last 5)71.4068.60
possession avg (last 5)48.8042.00
rest days5.796.00
scorer concentration0.280.18
season ppg1.570.96
skill v1-0.58-1.35
sot against avg (last 5)4.603.00
sot for avg (last 10)4.903.40
sot for avg (last 3)4.672.00
sot for avg (last 5)6.001.80
squad age27.6729.33
state index-0.22-0.17
sterile dominance v1-0.51-0.71
threat rate (last 10)0.260.23
threat rate (last 3)0.210.18
threat rate (last 5)0.260.22
venue ppg (last 5)3.000.80