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Ajaccio 3–2 Valenciennes

← Ligue 2 2016 · Fri, Feb 10, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: Lionel Jaffredo, France

The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market

“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = our simulation. A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.

Who wins? (90 minutes)

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Ajaccio win45%2.16
Draw33%2.98
Valenciennes win22%4.42

across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Timeline

7'⚽Moussa Maazou · Ajaccio
18'🟨Sigamary Diarra · Valenciennes
23'🟨Adrien Tameze · Valenciennes
42'⚽Moussa Maazou · Ajaccio
51'⚽Marvin Gakpa · Ajaccio
64'⚽Mouhamadou Ndao · Valenciennes
67'⚽Saliou Ciss · Valenciennes

from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks

The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in

Match stats

2Half-time score0

Pre-match form

What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.

MetricAjaccioValenciennes
accuracy ratio (last 10)0.390.32
accuracy ratio (last 3)0.350.34
accuracy ratio (last 5)0.390.34
blown lead rate (last 20)0.100.15
box share (last 5)0.560.37
cards avg (last 5)0.000.00
coach days832.00406.00
comeback rate (last 20)0.000.00
congestion 21d
Everything else we hold on this match · 1 more recorded fact — tap to expand
venueStade François-Coty
9.00
4.00
corner diff avg (last 5)1.20-3.60
corners against avg (last 5)4.006.00
corners for avg (last 5)5.202.40
corners volatility (last 10)1.902.01
elo1441.041453.64
elo momentum (last 5)-21.133.96
eye test v1-0.15-1.20
eye trend v1-0.310.05
first sub minute (last 10)64.1056.40
form points (last 5)4.006.00
goal diff avg (last 5)-0.800.00
goals against avg (last 5)1.800.40
goals for avg (last 5)1.000.40
goals volatility (last 10)0.820.95
h2 goals (last 10)1.000.90
h2h win rate (last 5)0.500.50
ht lead rate (last 20)0.300.20
keeper form v10.680.79
league points68.0032.00
league rank1.0013.00
matches since blank1.000.00
matches since clean sheet8.000.00
matches since win3.004.00
pass acc avg (last 5)73.2076.00
possession avg (last 5)55.2046.80
rest days2.794.00
scorer concentration0.170.35
season ppg1.331.19
skill v10.05-0.25
sot against avg (last 5)4.403.60
sot for avg (last 10)4.002.80
sot for avg (last 3)2.672.00
sot for avg (last 5)4.002.00
squad age29.8826.19
state index-0.82-0.39
sterile dominance v10.360.59
threat rate (last 10)0.210.17
threat rate (last 3)0.160.15
threat rate (last 5)0.210.13
venue ppg (last 5)2.201.40