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Nimes 1–1 Tours

← Ligue 2 2016 · Fri, Feb 10, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: Mehdi Mokhtari, France

The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market

“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = our simulation. A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.

Who wins? (90 minutes)

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Nimes win50%1.97
Draw29%3.42
Tours win22%4.46

across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Timeline

14'🟨Roderic Filippi · Tours
18'🟥Zie Diabate · Nimes
21'🟨Faïz Selemani · Tours
23'🟨Larry Azouni · Nimes
26'⚽Larry Azouni · Nimes
48'🟨Toifilou Maoulida · Tours
80'🟥Anthony Briançon · Nimes
87'🟨Theo Valls · Nimes
90'🟨Fethi Harek · Nimes
90'🟨Teji Savanier · Nimes
90'⚽Florian Miguel · Tours

from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks

The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in

Match stats

1Half-time score0

Pre-match form

What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.

MetricNimesTours
accuracy ratio (last 10)0.350.38
accuracy ratio (last 3)0.370.32
accuracy ratio (last 5)0.340.38
blown lead rate (last 20)0.200.00
box share (last 5)0.540.44
cards avg (last 5)0.000.00
coach days467.009.00
comeback rate (last 20)0.050.00
congestion 21d
Everything else we hold on this match · 1 more recorded fact — tap to expand
venueStade des Costières
4.00
3.00
corner diff avg (last 5)2.00-2.60
corners against avg (last 5)4.004.80
corners for avg (last 5)6.002.20
corners volatility (last 10)2.551.84
elo1529.921367.31
elo momentum (last 5)39.525.03
eye test v10.43-0.00
eye trend v10.17-0.43
first sub minute (last 10)60.3063.10
form points (last 5)11.005.00
goal diff avg (last 5)1.20-0.40
goals against avg (last 5)0.801.40
goals for avg (last 5)2.001.00
goals volatility (last 10)1.160.88
h2 goals (last 10)0.700.70
h2h win rate (last 5)1.000.00
ht lead rate (last 20)0.550.15
keeper form v10.630.68
league points41.0020.00
league rank7.0022.00
matches since blank4.000.00
matches since clean sheet0.002.00
matches since win0.004.00
pass acc avg (last 5)66.6070.20
possession avg (last 5)43.0043.00
rest days3.003.00
scorer concentration0.380.17
season ppg1.520.77
skill v1-1.50-1.12
sot against avg (last 5)2.804.20
sot for avg (last 10)5.004.40
sot for avg (last 3)5.673.00
sot for avg (last 5)5.204.40
squad age25.0724.03
state index0.55-0.73
sterile dominance v1-1.89-1.10
threat rate (last 10)0.330.27
threat rate (last 3)0.380.22
threat rate (last 5)0.370.29
venue ppg (last 5)1.601.00