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AJ Auxerre 0–2 Orleans

← Ligue 2 2016 · Sat, Feb 4, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: Stephanie Frappart, France

The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market

“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = our simulation. A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.

Who wins? (90 minutes)

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
AJ Auxerre win40%2.44
Draw32%3.05
Orleans win28%3.48

across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Timeline

11'🟨Yaya Sane · AJ Auxerre
24'🟨Matthieu Chemin · Orleans
47'🟨Ludovic Obraniak · AJ Auxerre
51'🟨Mickael Tacalfred · AJ Auxerre
73'🟨Baba Traore · AJ Auxerre
74'⚽Romain Armand · Orleans
77'⚽Romain Armand · Orleans

from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks

The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in

Match stats

0Half-time score0

Pre-match form

What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.

MetricAJ AuxerreOrleans
accuracy ratio (last 10)0.360.34
accuracy ratio (last 3)0.260.20
accuracy ratio (last 5)0.240.29
blown lead rate (last 20)0.050.05
box share (last 5)0.620.66
cards avg (last 5)0.000.00
coach days120.001679.00
comeback rate (last 20)0.000.05
congestion 21d
Everything else we hold on this match · 1 more recorded fact — tap to expand
venueStade de l'Abbé-Deschamps
3.00
2.00
corner diff avg (last 5)2.60-1.80
corners against avg (last 5)3.605.00
corners for avg (last 5)6.203.20
corners volatility (last 10)2.082.45
elo1407.771364.94
elo momentum (last 5)-39.01-6.77
eye test v1-0.51-1.08
eye trend v10.18-0.52
first sub minute (last 10)61.9063.60
form points (last 5)3.004.00
goal diff avg (last 5)-1.40-0.80
goals against avg (last 5)1.601.40
goals for avg (last 5)0.200.60
goals volatility (last 10)0.670.85
h2 goals (last 10)0.500.50
ht lead rate (last 20)0.200.15
keeper form v10.720.77
league points23.0020.00
league rank20.0021.00
matches since blank1.001.00
matches since clean sheet0.000.00
matches since win0.000.00
pass acc avg (last 5)72.8069.20
possession avg (last 5)50.0043.40
rest days8.008.00
scorer concentration0.330.21
season ppg0.850.80
skill v1-0.36-1.21
sot against avg (last 5)3.404.40
sot for avg (last 10)3.503.80
sot for avg (last 3)4.001.33
sot for avg (last 5)3.202.40
squad age26.0930.01
state index-0.95-0.77
sterile dominance v1-0.35-0.50
threat rate (last 10)0.220.24
threat rate (last 3)0.290.22
threat rate (last 5)0.260.20
venue ppg (last 5)1.000.40