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Amiens 1–2 Nimes

← Ligue 2 2016 Β· Fri, Feb 3, 03:00 PM UTC Β· ref: Aurelien Petit, France

The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market

β€œMarket” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin β€” the world's best guess. β€œModel” = our simulation. A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) β€” it's never about picking the winner.

Who wins? (90 minutes)

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Amiens win48%2.03
Draw29%3.32
Nimes win23%4.30

across 1 bookmaker Β· probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Timeline

20'⚽Rachid Alioui · Nimes
28'⚽Richard Soumah · Amiens
50'⚽ (pen)Teji Savanier · Nimes
58'🟨Teji Savanier · Nimes
70'🟨Junior Tallo · Amiens

from ESPN event data Β· goals, cards and shootout kicks

The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in

Match stats

1Half-time score1

Pre-match form

What each side looked like walking in β€” computed only from games before this one.

MetricAmiensNimes
accuracy ratio (last 10)0.360.33
accuracy ratio (last 3)0.400.35
accuracy ratio (last 5)0.340.41
box share (last 5)0.480.50
cards avg (last 5)0.000.00
coach days795.00460.00
congestion 21d3.003.00
corners volatility (last 10)1.942.75
elo1518.54
Everything else we hold on this match Β· 1 more recorded fact β€” tap to expand
venueStade de la Licorne
1502.22
elo momentum (last 5)-8.927.15
eye test v10.030.75
eye trend v10.220.07
first sub minute (last 10)59.9062.50
form points (last 5)7.008.00
goal diff avg (last 5)0.000.40
goals against avg (last 5)1.801.20
goals for avg (last 5)1.801.60
goals volatility (last 10)1.421.17
keeper form v10.740.58
league points35.0030.00
league rank7.0011.00
matches since blank4.002.00
matches since clean sheet6.002.00
matches since win0.001.00
pass acc avg (last 5)71.4068.60
possession avg (last 5)49.6046.60
rest days6.217.00
scorer concentration0.270.38
season ppg1.591.36
skill v1-0.55-1.05
sot against avg (last 5)5.803.60
sot for avg (last 10)4.704.60
sot for avg (last 3)5.675.00
sot for avg (last 5)4.606.20
state index0.020.08
sterile dominance v1-0.52-1.31
threat rate (last 10)0.270.30
threat rate (last 3)0.300.32
threat rate (last 5)0.270.34
venue ppg (last 5)2.001.80