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Valenciennes 0–1 Stade Brestois 29

← Ligue 2 2016 Β· Fri, Jan 27, 03:00 PM UTC Β· ref: Jeremy Stinat, France

The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market

β€œMarket” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin β€” the world's best guess. β€œModel” = our simulation. A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) β€” it's never about picking the winner.

Who wins? (90 minutes)

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Stade Brestois 29 win34%2.83
Valenciennes win33%2.94
Draw32%3.02

across 1 bookmaker Β· probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Timeline

15'🟨Cristian Battocchio · Stade Brestois 29
74'🟨Andy Faustin · Valenciennes
83'🟨Brendan Chardonnet · Stade Brestois 29
90'⚽Steven Joseph-Monrose · Stade Brestois 29

from ESPN event data Β· goals, cards and shootout kicks

The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in

Match stats

0Half-time score0

Pre-match form

What each side looked like walking in β€” computed only from games before this one.

MetricValenciennesStade Brestois 29
accuracy ratio (last 10)0.340.42
accuracy ratio (last 3)0.310.28
accuracy ratio (last 5)0.330.34
blown lead rate (last 20)0.150.05
box share (last 5)0.720.59
cards avg (last 5)0.000.00
coach days392.00210.00
comeback rate (last 20)0.000.00
congestion 21d2.002.00
corner diff avg (last 5)-1.201.00
Everything else we hold on this match Β· 1 more recorded fact β€” tap to expand
venueStade du Hainaut
corners against avg (last 5)5.404.60
corners for avg (last 5)4.205.60
corners volatility (last 10)2.022.85
elo1464.441498.26
elo momentum (last 5)15.85-1.31
eye test v1-0.510.40
eye trend v1-0.04-0.32
first sub minute (last 10)51.4060.10
form points (last 5)7.008.00
goal diff avg (last 5)0.200.20
goals against avg (last 5)0.800.40
goals for avg (last 5)1.000.60
goals volatility (last 10)1.250.94
h2 goals (last 10)1.000.40
h2h win rate (last 5)0.200.80
ht lead rate (last 20)0.200.20
keeper form v10.660.77
league points30.0043.00
league rank15.002.00
matches since blank0.000.00
matches since clean sheet0.001.00
matches since win1.001.00
pass acc avg (last 5)79.8082.20
possession avg (last 5)54.0058.80
rest days7.004.00
scorer concentration0.350.38
season ppg1.251.79
skill v10.641.23
sot against avg (last 5)2.404.40
sot for avg (last 10)3.105.20
sot for avg (last 3)2.334.33
sot for avg (last 5)2.804.80
squad age28.0227.30
state index0.010.14
sterile dominance v10.700.69
threat rate (last 10)0.160.23
threat rate (last 3)0.150.24
threat rate (last 5)0.190.24
venue ppg (last 5)1.402.40