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Nimes 2–2 RC Strasbourg Alsace

← Ligue 2 2016 · Fri, Jan 27, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: Yohann Rouinsard, France

The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market

“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = our simulation. A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.

Who wins? (90 minutes)

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Nimes win34%2.84
Draw34%2.85
RC Strasbourg Alsace win31%3.11

across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Timeline

17'🟨Fabien Garcia · Nimes
36'🟨Ernest Seka · RC Strasbourg Alsace
39'⚽Sada Thioub · Nimes
41'🟨Sada Thioub · Nimes
41'🟨Abdallah Ndour · RC Strasbourg Alsace
58'⚽Dimitri Liénard · RC Strasbourg Alsace
60'🟨Teji Savanier · Nimes
61'🟨Zie Diabate · Nimes
71'⚽Baptiste Guillaume · RC Strasbourg Alsace
73'🟨Stéphane Bahoken · RC Strasbourg Alsace
79'⚽Zie Diabate · Nimes

from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks

The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in

Match stats

1Half-time score0

Pre-match form

What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.

MetricNimesRC Strasbourg Alsace
accuracy ratio (last 10)0.320.45
accuracy ratio (last 3)0.430.40
accuracy ratio (last 5)0.380.40
box share (last 5)0.530.64
cards avg (last 5)0.000.00
coach days453.00210.00
congestion 21d2.001.00
corners volatility (last 10)2.531.72
elo
Everything else we hold on this match · 1 more recorded fact — tap to expand
venueStade des Costières
1505.55
1445.01
elo momentum (last 5)-6.3148.50
eye test v10.500.74
eye trend v10.430.54
first sub minute (last 10)62.0062.80
form points (last 5)7.0012.00
goal diff avg (last 5)0.001.20
goals against avg (last 5)1.201.00
goals for avg (last 5)1.202.20
goals volatility (last 10)1.261.06
keeper form v10.600.55
league points29.0032.00
league rank11.007.00
matches since blank1.005.00
matches since clean sheet1.001.00
matches since win0.001.00
pass acc avg (last 5)69.4072.60
possession avg (last 5)46.6047.40
rest days6.2113.21
scorer concentration0.410.32
season ppg1.381.60
skill v1-0.98-0.58
sot against avg (last 5)3.803.00
sot for avg (last 10)4.404.30
sot for avg (last 3)6.336.67
sot for avg (last 5)5.606.00
state index-0.080.34
sterile dominance v1-1.19-1.03
threat rate (last 10)0.310.23
threat rate (last 3)0.340.37
threat rate (last 5)0.320.33
venue ppg (last 5)1.201.20