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Racing Club de Lens 1–3 Nimes

← Ligue 2 2016 · Sat, Jan 21, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: Bartolomeu Varela Teles, France

The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market

“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = our simulation. A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.

Who wins? (90 minutes)

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Racing Club de Lens win60%1.64
Draw25%3.88
Nimes win15%6.37

across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Timeline

32'⚽Anthony Briançon · Nimes
36'🟨Daniel Opare · Racing Club de Lens
38'⚽Slimane Sissoko · Nimes
42'🟨Karim Aït-Fana · Nimes
58'🟨Sofiane Alakouch · Nimes
66'⚽Teji Savanier · Nimes
68'🟨Cristian López · Racing Club de Lens
88'⚽Abdelrafik Gerard · Racing Club de Lens

from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks

The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in

Match stats

0Half-time score2

Pre-match form

What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.

MetricRacing Club de LensNimes
accuracy ratio (last 10)0.330.32
accuracy ratio (last 3)0.350.43
accuracy ratio (last 5)0.320.37
box share (last 5)0.760.49
cards avg (last 5)0.000.00
coach days204.00447.00
congestion 21d1.001.00
corners volatility (last 10)3.202.53
elo1480.37
Everything else we hold on this match · 1 more recorded fact — tap to expand
venueStade Bollaert-Delelis
1488.32
elo momentum (last 5)21.97-8.83
eye test v1-0.220.39
eye trend v10.180.54
first sub minute (last 10)61.5059.50
form points (last 5)12.007.00
goal diff avg (last 5)0.400.20
goals against avg (last 5)1.201.00
goals for avg (last 5)1.601.20
goals volatility (last 10)0.821.26
keeper form v10.670.60
league points35.0026.00
league rank3.0014.00
matches since blank9.000.00
matches since clean sheet3.000.00
matches since win0.001.00
pass acc avg (last 5)81.6069.40
possession avg (last 5)60.8047.20
rest days7.797.79
scorer concentration0.290.46
season ppg1.751.30
skill v11.31-0.94
sot against avg (last 5)3.803.60
sot for avg (last 10)3.404.60
sot for avg (last 3)3.677.00
sot for avg (last 5)3.405.40
state index0.33-0.09
sterile dominance v11.19-1.09
threat rate (last 10)0.180.31
threat rate (last 3)0.170.37
threat rate (last 5)0.190.31
venue ppg (last 5)2.201.40