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Niort 2–2 Laval

← Ligue 2 2016 · Fri, Jan 13, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: Pierre Gaillouste, France

The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market

“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = our simulation. A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.

Who wins? (90 minutes)

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Niort win38%2.57
Draw34%2.84
Laval win28%3.52

across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Timeline

9'⚽Hassane Alla · Laval
14'⚽Romain Grange · Niort
29'⚽Mathieu Coutadeur · Laval
64'⚽Laurent Agouazi · Niort
68'🟨Dylan Saint-Louis · Laval
70'🟨Jeremy Choplin · Niort
80'🟨Alliou Dembele · Niort

from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks

The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in

Match stats

1Half-time score2

Pre-match form

What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.

MetricNiortLaval
accuracy ratio (last 10)0.400.31
accuracy ratio (last 3)0.290.37
accuracy ratio (last 5)0.310.40
box share (last 5)0.560.74
cards avg (last 5)0.000.00
coach days196.0073.00
congestion 21d0.000.00
corners volatility (last 10)—1.99
elo1473.87
Everything else we hold on this match · 1 more recorded fact — tap to expand
venueStade René-Gaillard
1441.52
elo momentum (last 5)-23.070.76
eye test v1-0.54-0.94
eye trend v1-0.280.08
first sub minute (last 10)63.50—
form points (last 5)5.005.00
goal diff avg (last 5)-0.600.00
goals against avg (last 5)1.601.00
goals for avg (last 5)1.001.00
goals volatility (last 10)1.271.10
keeper form v10.780.72
league points25.0016.00
league rank12.0017.00
matches since blank0.002.00
matches since clean sheet5.004.00
matches since win4.004.00
pass acc avg (last 5)74.6067.20
possession avg (last 5)48.2043.80
rest days28.0028.00
scorer concentration0.420.36
season ppg1.320.84
skill v1-0.32-1.42
sot against avg (last 5)6.404.20
sot for avg (last 10)3.752.80
sot for avg (last 3)2.672.67
sot for avg (last 5)3.202.80
state index-0.33-0.28
sterile dominance v1-0.12-0.37
threat rate (last 10)0.200.21
threat rate (last 3)0.190.16
threat rate (last 5)0.220.18
venue ppg (last 5)2.201.40