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Red Star 1–3 Clermont

← Ligue 2 2016 Β· Fri, Jan 13, 03:00 PM UTC Β· ref: Willy Delajod, France

The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market

β€œMarket” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin β€” the world's best guess. β€œModel” = our simulation. A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) β€” it's never about picking the winner.

Who wins? (90 minutes)

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Draw33%2.92
Red Star win33%2.92
Clermont win33%2.94

across 1 bookmaker Β· probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Timeline

6'πŸŸ₯Abdoulaye Sane Β· Red Star
13'⚽ (og)Pierrick Cros · Clermont
20'🟨Anatole Ngamukol · Red Star
29'🟨Julien Laporte · Clermont
30'⚽ (pen)Anatole Ngamukol · Red Star
43'⚽Mamadou Thiam · Clermont
70'⚽ (pen)Remy Dugimont · Clermont

from ESPN event data Β· goals, cards and shootout kicks

The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in

Match stats

1Half-time score2

Pre-match form

What each side looked like walking in β€” computed only from games before this one.

MetricRed StarClermont
accuracy ratio (last 10)0.380.35
accuracy ratio (last 3)0.260.32
accuracy ratio (last 5)0.250.31
box share (last 5)0.550.53
cards avg (last 5)0.000.00
coach days1657.001657.00
congestion 21d0.000.00
corners volatility (last 10)2.45β€”
elo1432.28
Everything else we hold on this match Β· 1 more recorded fact β€” tap to expand
venueStade Jean-Bouin
1488.40
elo momentum (last 5)-27.1813.82
eye test v1-1.00-0.17
eye trend v1-0.090.25
first sub minute (last 10)66.8042.80
form points (last 5)4.008.00
goal diff avg (last 5)-1.000.80
goals against avg (last 5)2.000.60
goals for avg (last 5)1.001.40
goals volatility (last 10)1.141.03
keeper form v1β€”0.68
league points19.0025.00
league rank15.0011.00
matches since blank0.002.00
matches since clean sheet2.000.00
matches since win2.000.00
pass acc avg (last 5)72.4071.80
possession avg (last 5)50.0049.60
rest days28.0028.00
scorer concentration0.210.35
season ppg1.001.32
skill v1-0.43-0.52
sot against avg (last 5)4.401.80
sot for avg (last 10)3.104.00
sot for avg (last 3)2.335.00
sot for avg (last 5)2.404.20
state index-0.570.14
sterile dominance v10.11-0.42
threat rate (last 10)0.170.24
threat rate (last 3)0.200.29
threat rate (last 5)0.190.26
venue ppg (last 5)1.600.60