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Orleans 0–1 Stade Brestois 29

← Ligue 2 2016 · Fri, Jan 13, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: Mehdi Mokhtari, France

The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market

“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = our simulation. A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.

Who wins? (90 minutes)

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Orleans win38%2.60
Draw33%3.00
Stade Brestois 29 win30%3.26

across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Timeline

33'🟨Ibrahima Sissoko · Stade Brestois 29
40'🟨Bruno Grougi · Stade Brestois 29
72'⚽Bryan Pelé · Stade Brestois 29
78'🟨Matthieu Ligoule · Orleans
79'🟨Gauthier Pinaud · Orleans

from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks

The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in

Match stats

0Half-time score0

Pre-match form

What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.

MetricOrleansStade Brestois 29
accuracy ratio (last 10)0.380.46
accuracy ratio (last 3)0.360.43
accuracy ratio (last 5)0.400.43
box share (last 5)0.600.54
cards avg (last 5)0.000.00
coach days1657.00196.00
congestion 21d0.000.00
corners volatility (last 10)—2.83
elo1408.25
Everything else we hold on this match · 1 more recorded fact — tap to expand
venueStade de la Source
1461.02
elo momentum (last 5)-27.590.72
eye test v10.200.92
eye trend v1-0.040.06
first sub minute (last 10)58.3059.10
form points (last 5)4.007.00
goal diff avg (last 5)-1.00-0.40
goals against avg (last 5)1.801.60
goals for avg (last 5)0.801.20
goals volatility (last 10)0.850.79
keeper form v10.600.73
league points15.0035.00
league rank19.002.00
matches since blank0.000.00
matches since clean sheet5.000.00
matches since win4.001.00
pass acc avg (last 5)71.0079.20
possession avg (last 5)52.4055.80
rest days28.0028.00
scorer concentration0.230.39
season ppg0.791.84
skill v1-0.410.70
sot against avg (last 5)4.404.80
sot for avg (last 10)4.505.60
sot for avg (last 3)4.336.33
sot for avg (last 5)5.006.40
state index-0.80-0.06
sterile dominance v1-0.240.23
threat rate (last 10)0.250.22
threat rate (last 3)0.250.26
threat rate (last 5)0.250.26
venue ppg (last 5)1.202.00